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We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-29 Charles Gadd , Sara Wade , Akeel Shah , Dimitris Grammatopoulos

Uncertainty quantification in image retrieval is crucial for downstream decisions, yet it remains a challenging and largely unexplored problem. Current methods for estimating uncertainties are poorly calibrated, computationally expensive,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-20 Frederik Warburg , Martin Jørgensen , Javier Civera , Søren Hauberg

We derive a maximum a posteriori estimator for the linear observation model, where the signal and noise covariance matrices are both uncertain. The uncertainties are treated probabilistically by modeling the covariance matrices with prior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-12 Dave Zachariah , Nafiseh Shariati , Mats Bengtsson , Magnus Jansson , Saikat Chatterjee

In this paper we develop an inverse Bayesian approach to find the value of the unknown model parameter vector that supports the real (or test) data, where the data comprises measurements of a matrix-variate variable. The method is…

Applications · Statistics 2015-05-27 Dalia Chakrabarty , Munmun Biswas , Sourabh Bhattacharya

We propose a framework for inversion-based estimation of certain categories of faults in discrete-time linear systems. The fault signal, as an unknown input, is reconstructed from its projections onto two subspaces. One projection is…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-02-26 Esmaeil Naderi , Khashayar Khorasani

Recent advances in reconstruction methods for inverse problems leverage powerful data-driven models, e.g., deep neural networks. These techniques have demonstrated state-of-the-art performances for several imaging tasks, but they often do…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Riccardo Barbano , Chen Zhang , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) --- the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model --- are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update…

Bayesian methods have been widely used in the last two decades to infer statistical properties of spatially variable coefficients in partial differential equations from measurements of the solutions of these equations. Yet, in many cases…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-01 David Aristoff , Wolfgang Bangerth

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-28 Sharmila Karumuri , Ilias Bilionis

Standard variational lower bounds used to train latent variable models produce biased estimates of most quantities of interest. We introduce an unbiased estimator of the log marginal likelihood and its gradients for latent variable models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Yucen Luo , Alex Beatson , Mohammad Norouzi , Jun Zhu , David Duvenaud , Ryan P. Adams , Ricky T. Q. Chen

When we use simulation to assess the performance of stochastic systems, the input models used to drive simulation experiments are often estimated from finite real-world data. There exist both input model and simulation estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-10 Wei Xie , Cheng Li , Yuefeng Wu , Pu Zhang

Despite numerous studies of deep autoencoders (AEs) for unsupervised anomaly detection, AEs still lack a way to express uncertainty in their predictions, crucial for ensuring safe and trustworthy machine learning systems in high-stake…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-28 Bang Xiang Yong , Alexandra Brintrup

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-26 Hrushikesh Loya , Pranav Poduval , Deepak Anand , Neeraj Kumar , Amit Sethi

We consider the problem of estimating parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with discrete-time observations that are either completely or partially observed. The transition density between two observations is generally…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-09 Libo Sun , Chihoon Lee , Jennifer A. Hoeting

In this work, we investigate the use of Besov priors in the context of Bayesian inverse problems. The solution to Bayesian inverse problems is the posterior distribution which naturally enables us to interpret the uncertainties. Besov…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-23 Andreas Horst , Babak Maboudi Afkham , Yiqiu Dong , Jakob Lemvig

Neural point estimators are neural networks that map data to parameter point estimates. They are fast, likelihood free and, due to their amortised nature, amenable to fast bootstrap-based uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we aim to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-05 Matthew Sainsbury-Dale , Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Raphaël Huser

We provide a new efficient adaptive algorithm for performing phase estimation that does not require that the user infer the bits of the eigenphase in reverse order; rather it directly infers the phase and estimates the uncertainty in the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-07-06 Nathan Wiebe , Christopher E Granade

We present a Bayesian methodology for infinite as well as finite dimensional parameter identification for partial differential equation models. The Bayesian framework provides a rigorous mathematical framework for incorporating prior…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-05-17 Eduard Campillo-Funollet , Chandrasekhar Venkataraman , Anotida Madzvamuse

This paper analyzes hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems using techniques from high-dimensional statistics. Our analysis leverages a property of hierarchical Bayesian regularizers that we call approximate decomposability to obtain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-09 Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Nathan Waniorek

When a posterior peaks in unexpected regions of parameter space, new physics has either been discovered, or a bias has not been identified yet. To tell these two cases apart is of paramount importance. We therefore present a method to…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2019-09-04 Elena Sellentin , Jean-Luc Starck