Related papers: Misspecification-Robust Shrinkage and Selection fo…

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models offer a versatile framework for multivariate time series analysis, yet face critical challenges from over-parameterization and uncertain lag order. In this paper, we systematically compare…

We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…

Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with various forms of stochastic volatility have become increasingly popular in empirical macroeconomics. One main difficulty for practitioners is to choose the most suitable stochastic volatility…

Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models but, at the same time, introduce the restriction that each equation features the same set of explanatory variables. This paper proposes a…

In many parameter estimation problems, the exact model is unknown and is assumed to belong to a set of candidate models. In such cases, a predetermined data-based selection rule selects a parametric model from a set of candidates before the…

Shrinkage estimators that possess the ability to produce sparse solutions have become increasingly important to the analysis of today's complex datasets. Examples include the LASSO, the Elastic-Net and their adaptive counterparts.…

Model misspecification in multivariate econometric models can strongly influence estimates of quantities of interest such as structural parameters, forecast distributions or responses to structural shocks, even more so if higher-order…

Modern approaches to perform Bayesian variable selection rely mostly on the use of shrinkage priors. That said, an ideal shrinkage prior should be adaptive to different signal levels, ensuring that small effects are ruled out, while keeping…

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

Bayesian variable selection often assumes normality, but the effects of model misspecification are not sufficiently understood. There are sound reasons behind this assumption, particularly for large $p$: ease of interpretation, analytical…

Large Bayesian VARs are now widely used in empirical macroeconomics. One popular shrinkage prior in this setting is the natural conjugate prior as it facilitates posterior simulation and leads to a range of useful analytical results. This…

Variable selection in the linear regression model takes many apparent faces from both frequentist and Bayesian standpoints. In this paper we introduce a variable selection method referred to as a rescaled spike and slab model. We study the…

Vector autoregression (VAR) is a fundamental tool for modeling multivariate time series. However, as the number of component series is increased, the VAR model becomes overparameterized. Several authors have addressed this issue by…

We develop a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model with multivariate stochastic volatility that is capable of handling vast dimensional information sets. Three features are introduced to permit reliable estimation of the model. First,…

Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to…

Consider the problem of estimating a multivariate normal mean with a known variance matrix, which is not necessarily proportional to the identity matrix. The coordinates are shrunk directly in proportion to their variances in Efron and…

Most estimates for penalised linear regression can be viewed as posterior modes for an appropriate choice of prior distribution. Bayesian shrinkage methods, particularly the horseshoe estimator, have recently attracted a great deal of…

Macroeconomists using large datasets often face the choice of working with either a large Vector Autoregression (VAR) or a factor model. In this paper, we develop methods for combining the two using a subspace shrinkage prior. Subspace…

We consider impulse response inference in a locally misspecified vector autoregression (VAR) model. The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be…