Related papers: Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods: What, Why, and How?
This paper studies randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) sampling for discontinuous integrands having singularities along the boundary of the unit cube $[0,1]^d$. Both discontinuities and singularities are extremely common in the pricing and…
Three sampling methods are compared for efficiency on a number of test problems of various complexity for which analytic quadratures are available. The methods compared are Monte Carlo with pseudo-random numbers, Latin Hypercube Sampling,…
Monte Carlo simulations are one of the major tools in statistical physics, complex system science, and other fields, and an increasing number of these simulations is run on distributed systems like clusters or grids. This raises the issue…
Probabilistic prediction of sequences from images and other high-dimensional data is a key challenge, particularly in risk-sensitive applications. In these settings, it is often desirable to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…
Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…
A statistical learning approach for parametric PDEs related to Uncertainty Quantification is derived. The method is based on the minimization of an empirical risk on a selected model class and it is shown to be applicable to a broad range…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is a widely used algorithm for sampling from posterior distributions of complex Bayesian models. It can efficiently explore high-dimensional parameter spaces guided by simulated Hamiltonian flows. However, the…
Importance sampling Monte-Carlo methods are widely used for the approximation of expectations with respect to partially known probability measures. In this paper we study a deterministic version of such an estimator based on quasi-Monte…
The objective of Bayesian inference is often to infer, from data, a probability measure for a random variable that can be used as input for Monte Carlo simulation. When datasets for Bayesian inference are small, a principle challenge is…
Classical algorithms in numerical analysis for numerical integration (quadrature/cubature) follow the principle of approximate and integrate: the integrand is approximated by a simple function (e.g. a polynomial), which is then integrated…
Monte Carlo methods approximate integrals by sample averages of integrand values. The error of Monte Carlo methods may be expressed as a trio identity: the product of the variation of the integrand, the discrepancy of the sampling measure,…
We describe a general strategy for sampling configurations from a given distribution, NOT based on the standard Metropolis (Markov chain) strategy. It uses the fact that nontrivial problems in statistical physics are high dimensional and…
We present an intuitive, conceptual, but semi-rigorous introduction to the celebrated Markov Chain Monte Carlo method using a simple model of population dynamics as our motivation and focusing on a few elementary distributions.…
We show how information on the uniformity properties of a point set employed in numerical multidimensional integration can be used to improve the error estimate over the usual Monte Carlo one. We introduce a new measure of (non-)uniformity…
We consider the problem of computing an approximation to the integral $I=\int_{[0,1]^d}f(x) dx$. Monte Carlo (MC) sampling typically attains a root mean squared error (RMSE) of $O(n^{-1/2})$ from $n$ independent random function evaluations.…
The self-learning Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is a powerful Monte Carlo method that, with the help of machine learning, adaptively generates an easy-to-sample probability distribution for approximating a given hard-to-sample distribution.…
We consider the problem of forecasting debt recovery from large portfolios of non-performing unsecured consumer loans under management. The state of the art in industry is to use stochastic processes to approximately model payment behaviour…
Sampling from complicated probability distributions is a hard computational problem arising in many fields, including statistical physics, optimization, and machine learning. Quantum computers have recently been used to sample from…
Monte Carlo integration is a commonly used technique to compute intractable integrals and is typically thought to perform poorly for very high-dimensional integrals. To show that this is not always the case, we examine Monte Carlo…
We provide a numerical scheme to approximate as closely as desired the Gaussian or exponential measure $\mu(\om)$ of (not necessarily compact) basic semi-algebraic sets$\om\subset\R^n$. We obtain two monotone (non increasing and non…