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We identify a choiceless variation of the box game paradox, in which players predict unknown real numbers with near-perfect accuracy despite lacking any useful information. We also verify that choice is necessary in the solution of the…

Logic · Mathematics 2023-01-09 Elliot Glazer

In this paper, we study the distributed optimization problem using approximate first-order information. We suppose the agent can repeatedly call an inexact first-order oracle of each individual objective function and exchange information…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-26 Kui Zhu , Yichen Zhang , Yutao Tang

In a prediction tournament, contestants "forecast" by asserting a numerical probability for each of (say) 100 future real-world events. The scoring system is designed so that (regardless of the unknown true probabilities) more accurate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-07 David Aldous

We consider max-weighted matching with costs for learning the weights, modeled as a "Pandora's Box" on each endpoint of an edge. Each vertex has an initially-unknown value for being matched to a neighbor, and an algorithm must pay some cost…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Robin Bowers , Bo Waggoner

This paper explores a theory of generalization for learning problems on product distributions, complementing the existing learning theories in the sense that it does not rely on any complexity measures of the hypothesis classes. The main…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-07-28 Chenghao Guo , Zhiyi Huang , Zhihao Gavin Tang , Xinzhi Zhang

We study a natural competitive-information-design strategic variant for the celebrated Pandora's Box problem (Weitzman, 1979), where each box is associated with a strategic information sender who can design what information about the box's…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Bolin Ding , Yiding Feng , Chien-Ju Ho , Wei Tang , Haifeng Xu

Large language model (LLM) generation often requires balancing output quality against inference cost, especially when using multiple generations. We introduce a new framework for inference-time optimization based on the classical Pandora's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Yusuf Kalayci , Vinod Raman , Shaddin Dughmi

The theory of imprecise Markov chains has achieved significant progress in recent years. Its applicability, however, is still very much limited, due in large part to the lack of efficient computational methods for calculating…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-30 Damjan Škulj

In this paper, we study the Markovian Pandora's Box Problem, where decisions are governed by both order constraints and Markovianly correlated rewards, structured within a shared directed acyclic graph. To the best of our knowledge,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Yuanyuan Yang , Ruimin Zhang , Jamie Morgenstern , Haifeng Xu

Quantum pre- and post-selection (PPS) paradoxes occur when counterfactual inferences are made about different measurements that might have been performed, between two measurements that are actually performed. The 3 box paradox is the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-03-30 O. J. E. Maroney

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

Algorithms with predictions is a recent framework for decision-making under uncertainty that leverages the power of machine-learned predictions without making any assumption about their quality. The goal in this framework is for algorithms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Eric Balkanski , Will Ma , Andreas Maggiori

Within the last few years, there has been a move towards using statistical models in conjunction with neural networks with the end goal of being able to better answer the question, "what do our models know?". From this trend, classical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Achintya Gopal

From celestial mechanics to quantum theory of atoms and molecules, perturbation theory has played a central role in natural sciences. Particularly in quantum mechanics, the amount of information needed for specifying the state of a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-07-06 Yudong Cao , Sabre Kais

Martin Weitzman's "Pandora's problem" furnishes the mathematical basis for optimal search theory in economics. Nearly 40 years later, Laura Doval introduced a version of the problem in which the searcher is not obligated to pay the cost of…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-05-07 Hedyeh Beyhaghi , Robert Kleinberg

Online decision-makers often obtain predictions on future variables, such as arrivals, demands, inventories, and so on. These predictions can be generated from simple forecasting algorithms for univariate time-series, all the way to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-06-25 Lin An , Andrew A. Li , Benjamin Moseley , Gabriel Visotsky

Bayesian optimization is a technique for efficiently optimizing unknown functions in a black-box manner. To handle practical settings where gathering data requires use of finite resources, it is desirable to explicitly incorporate function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-17 Qian Xie , Raul Astudillo , Peter I. Frazier , Ziv Scully , Alexander Terenin

We study the classic fully dynamic load balancing problem on unrelated machines where jobs arrive and depart over time and the goal is minimizing the maximum load, or more generally the l_p-norm of the load vector. Previous work either…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Yossi Azar , Niv Buchbinder , Tomer Epshtein

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

The vast majority of real world classification problems are imbalanced, meaning there are far fewer data from the class of interest (the positive class) than from other classes. We propose two machine learning algorithms to handle highly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-06-10 Siong Thye Goh , Cynthia Rudin