Related papers: Estimating Export-productivity Cutoff Contours wit…
We present a new uncertainty principle for risk-aware statistical estimation, effectively quantifying the inherent trade-off between mean squared error ($\mse$) and risk, the latter measured by the associated average predictive squared…
Overconservatism has long been recognized as a major issue with robust optimization, despite its key advantages of tractability, performance guarantee, and limited information. To address this issue, a new criterion is proposed that can…
Heterogeneity of economic agents is emphasized in a new trend of macroeconomics. Accordingly the new emerging discipline requires one to replace the production function, one of key ideas in the conventional economics, by an alternative…
This paper presents a novel approach to optimizing profit margins in non-life insurance markets through a gradient descent-based method, targeting three key objectives: 1) maximizing profit margins, 2) ensuring conversion rates, and 3)…
This paper analizes the optimal level of transfer pricing manipulation when the expected tax penalty is a function of the tax enforcement and the market price parameter. The arm's length principle implies the existence of a range of…
A number of recent contributions have put forward the topological structure of production networks as a key determinant of macro-economic dynamics. However, firm-to-firm production networks data is generally not available. Against this…
In this paper we focus on the problem of assigning uncertainties to single-point predictions generated by a deterministic model that outputs a continuous variable. This problem applies to any state-of-the-art physics or engineering models…
Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem,…
This paper shows how data science can contribute to improving empirical research in economics by leveraging on large datasets and extracting information otherwise unsuitable for a traditional econometric approach. As a test-bed for our…
How do inter-organizational networks emerge? Accounting for interdependence among ties while studying tie formation is one of the key challenges in this area of research. We address this challenge using an equilibrium framework where firms'…
Hit rate is a key performance metric in predicting process product quality in integrated industrial processes. It represents the percentage of products accepted by downstream processes within a controlled range of quality. However,…
Economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. It resides on the premise of hidden capabilities - fundamental endowments underlying the productive structure. In general,…
A speed threshold is a crucial parameter in breakdown and capacity distribution analysis as it defines the boundary between free-flow and congested regimes. However, literature on approaches to establishing the breakpoint value for…
We prove a range of new sum-product type growth estimates over a general field $\mathbb{F}$, in particular the special case $\mathbb{F}=\mathbb{F}_p$. They are unified by the theme of "breaking the $3/2$ threshold", epitomising the previous…
The availability of massive vehicle trajectory data enables the modeling of road-network constrained movement as travel-cost distributions rather than just single-valued costs, thereby capturing the inherent uncertainty of movement and…
We observe nominal price rigidity in tobacco markets across China. The monopolistic seller responds by adjusting product assortments, which remain unobserved by the analyst. We develop and estimate a logit demand model that incorporates…
We develop a new identification strategy for demand estimation when cost shifters may not be available and there are substantial variations in demand over time. This approaches relies on a kind of nonlinear difference-in-differences, in…
As one of the most commonly seen data challenges, missing data, in particular, multiple, non-monotone missing patterns, complicates estimation and inference due to the fact that missingness mechanisms are often not missing at random, and…
Average forecast accuracy is not the same as forecast reliability. I treat forecast loss differentials relative to a benchmark as a return series. I then evaluate these returns using risk-adjusted performance measures from finance,…
In competitive industries, a reliable yield forecasting is a prime factor to accurately determine the production costs and therefore ensure profitability. Indeed, quantifying the risks long before the effective manufacturing process enables…