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Causal inference is central to statistics and scientific discovery, enabling researchers to identify cause-and-effect relationships beyond associations. While traditionally studied within Euclidean spaces, contemporary applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Satarupa Bhattacharjee , Bing Li , Xiao Wu , Lingzhou Xue

We study the problem of estimating causal effects under hidden confounding in the following unpaired data setting: we observe some covariates $X$ and an outcome $Y$ under different experimental conditions (environments) but do not observe…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-22 Felix Schur , Niklas Pfister , Peng Ding , Sach Mukherjee , Jonas Peters

There is a large literature on semiparametric estimation of average treatment effects under unconfounded treatment assignment in settings with a fixed number of covariates. More recently attention has focused on settings with a large number…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-26 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens , Thai Pham , Stefan Wager

The participants in randomized trials and other studies used for causal inference are often not representative of the populations seen by clinical decision-makers. To account for differences between populations, researchers may consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-12 Anders Huitfeldt , Sonja A. Swanson , Mats Julius Stensrud , Etsuji Suzuki

We present an overview of the decision-theoretic framework of statistical causality, which is well-suited for formulating and solving problems of determining the effects of applied causes. The approach is described in detail, and is related…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 A. Philip Dawid

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes;…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Yonghan Jung , Bogyeong Kang

Using symmetric boundary conditions at separated times, I show analytically that both the time ordering of (macroscopic) causality and the direction of entropy increase follow from these boundary conditions. In particular, when the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 L. S. Schulman

We assume to be given structural equations over discrete variables inducing a directed acyclic graph, namely, a structural causal model, together with data about its internal nodes. The question we want to answer is how we can compute…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas , David Huber , Dario Azzimonti

We study the sharp bounds of $\mathbb{E}[X_1\cdots X_d]$ when the univariate marginal distributions are known, but the dependence structure between them is unspecified. Maximizing products over non-negative variables is straightforward via…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-27 Christopher Blier-Wong , Jinghui Chen

Mathematicians tend to use the phrase "arbitrarily close" to mean something along the lines of "every neighborhood of a point intersects a set". Taking the latter statement as a technical definition for arbitrarily close leads to an…

History and Overview · Mathematics 2022-08-11 John A. Rock

To answer questions of "causes of effects", the probability of necessity is introduced for assessing whether or not an observed outcome was caused by an earlier treatment. However, the statistical inference for probability of necessity is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-14 Ping Zhang , Ruoyu Wang , Wang Miao

The goal of this paper is to design a causal inference method accounting for complex interactions between causal factors. The proposed method relies on a category theoretical reformulation of the definitions of dependent variables,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Rémy Tuyéras

Implicit variables of an optimization problem are used to model variationally challenging feasibility conditions in a tractable way while not entering the objective function. Hence, it is a standard approach to treat implicit variables as…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-01 Patrick Mehlitz

Statisticians usually restrict regression to model relationships that are explicitly defined dependent and independent random variables; this paper outlines the newly developed method of non-response analysis and rotational analysis for…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-29 Rebecca D. Wooten

Causal inference plays an important role in explanatory analysis and decision making across various fields like statistics, marketing, health care, and education. Its main task is to estimate treatment effects and make intervention…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-22 Yingrong Wang , Haoxuan Li , Minqin Zhu , Anpeng Wu , Ruoxuan Xiong , Fei Wu , Kun Kuang

We study a generalization of conditional probability for arbitrary ordered vector spaces. A related problem is that of assigning a numerical value to one vector relative to another. We characterize the groups for which these generalized…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-12 Nicolas Monod

The moments of random variables are fundamental statistical measures for characterizing the shape of a probability distribution, encompassing metrics such as mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Additionally, the product moments,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-09 Yuta Kawakami , Jin Tian

An apriori bound for the condition number associated to each of the following problems is given: general linear equation solving, minimum squares, non-symmetric eigenvalue problems, solving univariate polynomials, solving systems of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-20 Gregorio Malajovich

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-10 Liuyi Yao , Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li , Yaliang Li , Jing Gao , Aidong Zhang

Calibration weighting has been widely used to correct selection biases in non-probability sampling, missing data, and causal inference. The main idea is to calibrate the biased sample to the benchmark by adjusting the subject weights.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-30 Chenyin Gao , Shu Yang , Jae Kwang Kim
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