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This paper investigates an approximation scheme of the optimal nonlinear Bayesian filter based on the Gaussian mixture representation of the state probability distribution function. The resulting filter is similar to the particle filter,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-30 Ibrahim Hoteit , Xiaodong Luo , Dinh-Tuan Pham

The FFT EnKF data assimilation method is proposed and applied to a stochastic cell simulation of an epidemic, based on the S-I-R spread model. The FFT EnKF combines spatial statistics and ensemble filtering methodologies into a localized…

Computation · Statistics 2010-03-10 Jan Mandel , Jonathan D. Beezley , Loren Cobb , Ashok Krishnamurthy

Controlled interacting particle systems such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the feedback particle filter (FPF) are numerical algorithms to approximate the solution of the nonlinear filtering problem in continuous time. The…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-10-08 Amirhossein Taghvaei , Prashant G. Mehta

The extended Kalman filter (EKF) is a common state estimation method for discrete nonlinear systems. It recursively executes the propagation step as time goes by and the update step when a set of measurements arrives. In the update step,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-05 Jianzhu Huai , Xiang Gao

Accurate modeling and prediction of complex physical systems often rely on data assimilation techniques to correct errors inherent in model simulations. Traditional methods like the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its variants as well as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-12 Phillip Si , Peng Chen

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is widely used to sample a probability density function (pdf) generated by a stochastic model conditioned by noisy data. This pdf can be either a joint posterior that describes the evolution of the state of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-08-08 Matthias Morzfeld , Daniel Hodyss

Ensemble transform Kalman filtering (ETKF) data assimilation is often used to combine available observations with numerical simulations to obtain statistically accurate and reliable state representations in dynamical systems. However, it is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-07 Tongtong Li , Anne Gelb , Yoonsang Lee

Heavy tails is a common feature of filtering distributions that results from the nonlinear dynamical and observation processes as well as the uncertainty from physical sensors. In these settings, the Kalman filter and its ensemble version -…

Computation · Statistics 2023-10-16 Mathieu Le Provost , Ricardo Baptista , Jeff D. Eldredge , Youssef Marzouk

We propose a new type of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), which uses the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) for covariance estimation from a very small ensemble with automatic tapering, and for a fast computation of the analysis ensemble by…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-08-01 Jan Mandel , Jonathan D. Beezley , Volodymyr Y. Kondratenko

This paper develops an efficient implementation of the ensemble Kalman filter based on a modified Cholesky decomposition for inverse covariance matrix estimation. This implementation is named EnKF-MC. Background errors corresponding to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-31 Elias D. Nino , Adrian Sandu , Xinwei Deng

This paper develops efficient ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) implementations based on shrinkage covariance estimation. The forecast ensemble members at each step are used to estimate the background error covariance matrix via the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-03 Elias D. Nino-Ruiz , Adrian Sandu

This paper studies multiplicative inflation: the complementary scaling of the state covariance in the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Firstly, error sources in the EnKF are catalogued and discussed in relation to inflation; nonlinearity is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-03-27 Patrick N. Raanes , Marc Bocquet , Alberto Carrassi

A modification scheme to the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is introduced based on the concept of the unscented transform (Julier et al., 2000; Julier and Uhlmann, 2004), which therefore will be called the ensemble unscented Kalman filter…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-11-30 X. Luo , I. M. Moroz

A sequential estimator based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter for Data Assimilation of fluid flows is presented in this research work. The main feature of this estimator is that the Kalman filter update, which relies on the determination of…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-07-28 Gabriel Moldovan , Guillame Lehnasch , Laurent Cordier , Marcello Meldi

This paper uses a probabilistic approach to analyze the converge of an ensemble Kalman filter solution to an exact Kalman filter solution in the simplest possible setting, the scalar case, as it allows us to build upon a rich literature of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-31 Andrey A Popov , Adrian Sandu

Ensemble methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), and the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) are widely used in sequential data assimilation, where state vectors are of huge…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-03 El houcine Bergou , Serge Gratton , Jan Mandel

We present a novel sampling-based method for estimating probabilities of rare or failure events. Our approach is founded on the Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for inverse problems. Therefore, we reformulate the rare event problem as an…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-12-15 Fabian Wagner , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

Several variations of the Kalman filter algorithm, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), are widely used in science and engineering applications. In this paper, we introduce two algorithms of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Wei Kang , Liang Xu

Data assimilation plays a key role in large-scale atmospheric weather forecasting, where the state of the physical system is estimated from model outputs and observations, and is then used as initial condition to produce accurate future…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-13 Azam Moosavi , Ahmed Attia , Adrian Sandu

Many real-world problems require one to estimate parameters of interest, in a Bayesian framework, from data that are collected sequentially in time. Conventional methods for sampling from posterior distributions, such as {Markov Chain Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-25 Jiangqi Wu , Linjie Wen , Peter L Green , Jinglai Li , Simon Maskell