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Data assimilation (DA) has increasingly emerged as a critical tool for state estimation across a wide range of applications. It is significantly challenging when the governing equations of the underlying dynamics are unknown. To this end,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Ziyi Wang , Lijian Jiang

Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) obtains essential information from data by using Bayesian inference. It is applied to knowledge discovery via dimension reducing and clustering in many fields. However, its generalization error had not been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-26 Naoki Hayashi

Data assimilation of observational data into full atmospheric states is essential for weather forecast model initialization. Recently, methods for deep generative data assimilation have been proposed which allow for using new input data…

4D-variational data assimilation is applied to the Lorenz '63 model to introduce a new method for parameter estimation in chaotic climate models. The approach aims to optimise an Earth system model (ESM), for which no adjoint exists, by…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-18 Philip David Kennedy , Abhirup Banerjee , Armin Köhl , Detlef Stammer

Given that observational and numerical climate data are being produced at ever more prodigious rates, increasingly sophisticated and automated analysis techniques have become essential. Deep learning is quickly becoming a standard approach…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2017-09-12 A. Rupe , J. P. Crutchfield , K. Kashinath , Prabhat

We review the field of data assimilation (DA) from a Bayesian perspective and show that, in addition to its by now common application to state estimation, DA may be used for model selection. An important special case of the latter is the…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-05 Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Alexis Hannart , Michael Ghil

Data-driven prediction and physics-agnostic machine-learning methods have attracted increased interest in recent years achieving forecast horizons going well beyond those to be expected for chaotic dynamical systems. In a separate strand of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-05-19 Georg A. Gottwald , Sebastian Reich

The Data Assimilation (DA) community has been developing various diagnostics to understand the importance of the observing system in accurately forecasting the weather. They usually rely on the ability to compute the derivatives of the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-03 Patrick Laloyaux , Mihai Alexe , Eulalie Boucher , Peter Lean , Ewan Pinnington , Simon Lang , Tobias Necker , Anthony McNally

We investigate the ability to discover data assimilation (DA) schemes meant for chaotic dynamics with deep learning. The focus is on learning the analysis step of sequential DA, from state trajectories and their observations, using a simple…

Ensemble data assimilation is a problem in determining the most likely phase space trajectory of a model of an observed dynamical sys- tem as it receives inputs from measurements passing information to the model. Using methods developed in…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-05-13 Henry D. I. Abarbanel

Ultra-rapid data assimilation (URDA) is a method that rapidly updates preemptive forecasts derived from observations without integrating a dynamical model each time additional observations become available. Due to its computational…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-05-19 Fumitoshi Kawasaki , Atsushi Okazaki , Kenta Kurosawa , Shunji Kotsuki

A thermal convection loop is a annular chamber filled with water, heated on the bottom half and cooled on the top half. With sufficiently large forcing of heat, the direction of fluid flow in the loop oscillates chaotically, dynamics…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-06-24 Andrew J. Reagan , Yves Dubief , Peter Sheridan Dodds , Christopher M. Danforth

Statistical Data Assimilation (SDA) is the transfer of information from field or laboratory observations to a user selected model of the dynamical system producing those observations. The data is noisy and the model has errors; the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-01-16 Adrian S. Wong , Kangbo Hao , Zheng Fang , Henry D. I. Abarbanel

Reliable LiDAR perception requires robustness across sensors, environments, and adverse weather. However, existing datasets rarely provide physically consistent observations of the same scene under varying sensor configurations and weather…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Vivek Anand , Bharat Lohani , Rakesh Mishra , Gaurav Pandey

Accurate and efficient global ocean state estimation remains a grand challenge for Earth system science, hindered by the dual bottlenecks of computational scalability and degraded data fidelity in traditional data assimilation (DA) and deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Yanfei Xiang , Yuan Gao , Hao Wu , Quan Zhang , Ruiqi Shu , Xiao Zhou , Xi Wu , Xiaomeng Huang

Data assimilation is uniquely challenging in weather forecasting due to the high dimensionality of the employed models and the nonlinearity of the governing equations. Although current operational schemes are used successfully, our…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-05-09 Lea Oljača , Jochen Bröcker , Tobias Kuna

Continuous data assimilation (CDA) techniques, most notably the nudging approach proposed by Azouani, Olson, and Titi (AOT), have been shown to be very successful in deterministic frameworks for achieving long-time synchronization between…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-20 Kush Kinra

Prediction of chaotic systems relies on a floating fusion of sensor data (observations) with a numerical model to decide on a good system trajectory and to compensate nonlinear feedback effects. Ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) is a…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2020-11-26 Sebastian Friedemann , Bruno Raffin

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to rapidly evolve, the realm of Earth and atmospheric sciences is increasingly adopting data-driven models, powered by progressive developments in deep learning (DL). Specifically, DL techniques are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-07 Shengchao Chen , Guodong Long , Jing Jiang , Dikai Liu , Chengqi Zhang

Spatially misaligned data can be fused by using a Bayesian melding model that assumes that underlying all observations there is a spatially continuous Gaussian random field process. This model can be used, for example, to predict air…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-06 Ruiman Zhong , André Victor Ribeiro Amaral , Paula Moraga