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Reasoning about the effect of interventions and counterfactuals is a fundamental task found throughout the data sciences. A collection of principles, algorithms, and tools has been developed for performing such tasks in the last decades…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Tara V. Anand , Adèle H. Ribeiro , Jin Tian , Elias Bareinboim

Causal inference aids researchers in discovering cause-and-effect relationships, leading to scientific insights. Accurate causal estimation requires identifying confounding variables to avoid false discoveries. Pearl's causal model uses…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Anna Zeng , Michael Cafarella , Batya Kenig , Markos Markakis , Brit Youngmann , Babak Salimi

We consider a a collection of categorical random variables. Of special interest is the causal effect on an outcome variable following an intervention on another variable. Conditionally on a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), we assume that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-29 Federico Castelletti , Guido Consonni , Marco Luigi Della Vedova

This paper concerns the assessment of the effects of actions from a combination of nonexperimental data and causal assumptions encoded in the form of a directed acyclic graph in which some variables are presumed to be unobserved. We provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-19 Jin Tian

Ordinal variables, such as on the Likert scale, are common in applied research. Yet, existing methods for causal inference tend to target nominal or continuous data. When applied to ordinal data, this fails to account for the inherent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-26 Martina Scauda , Jack Kuipers , Giusi Moffa

Deterministic variables are variables that are fully explained by one or more parent variables. They commonly arise when a variable has been algebraically constructed from one or more parent variables, as with composite variables, and in…

The current method for predicting causal links in knowledge graphs uses weighted causal relations. For a given link between cause-effect entities, the presence of a confounder affects the causal link prediction, which can lead to spurious…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Utkarshani Jaimini , Cory Henson , Amit Sheth

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

In observational studies, the causal effect of a treatment may be confounded with variables that are related to both the treatment and the outcome of interest. In order to identify a causal effect, such studies often rely on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-17 Emma Persson , Jenny Häggström , Ingeborg Waernbaum , Xavier de Luna

This paper deals with the problem of evaluating the causal effect using observational data in the presence of an unobserved exposure/ outcome variable, when cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-18 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

This paper introduces a new framework for recovering causal graphs from observational data, leveraging the observation that the distribution of an effect, conditioned on its causes, remains invariant to changes in the prior distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Nang Hung Nguyen , Phi Le Nguyen , Thao Nguyen Truong , Trong Nghia Hoang , Masashi Sugiyama

Through recognizing causal subgraphs, causal graph learning (CGL) has risen to be a promising approach for improving the generalizability of graph neural networks under out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. However, the empirical successes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Yujia Yin , Tianyi Qu , Zihao Wang , Yifan Chen

We propose a method to distinguish causal influence from hidden confounding in the following scenario: given a target variable Y, potential causal drivers X, and a large number of background features, we propose a novel criterion for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-07 You-Lin Chen , Lenon Minorics , Dominik Janzing

We develop terminology and methods for working with maximally oriented partially directed acyclic graphs (maximal PDAGs). Maximal PDAGs arise from imposing restrictions on a Markov equivalence class of directed acyclic graphs, or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-20 Emilija Perković , Markus Kalisch , Maloes H. Maathuis

Unobserved confounding is the main obstacle to causal effect estimation from observational data. Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used for causal effect estimation when there exist latent confounders. With the standard IV method,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jiji Zhang , Thuc duy Le , Jixue Liu

Graphical models based on Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are widely used to answer causal questions across a variety of scientific and social disciplines. However, observational data alone cannot distinguish in general between DAGs…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-03 Federico Castelletti , Guido Consonni

This paper studies the causal representation learning problem when the latent causal variables are observed indirectly through an unknown linear transformation. The objectives are: (i) recovering the unknown linear transformation (up to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-02 Burak Varici , Emre Acarturk , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Abhishek Kumar , Ali Tajer

Causal DAGs(Directed Acyclic Graphs) are usually considered in a 2D plane. Edges indicate causal effects' directions and imply their corresponding time-passings. Due to the natural restriction of statistical models, effect estimation is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Jia Li , Xiang Li , Xiaowei Jia , Michael Steinbach , Vipin Kumar

Background: In longitudinal data, it is common to create 'change scores' by subtracting measurements taken at baseline from those taken at follow-up, and then to analyse the resulting 'change' as the outcome variable. In observational data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-08 Peter W. G. Tennant , Kellyn F. Arnold , George T. H. Ellison , Mark S. Gilthorpe

The paper provides a simple test for deciding, from a given causal diagram, whether two sets of variables have the same bias-reducing potential under adjustment. The test requires that one of the following two conditions holds: either (1)…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-19 Judea Pearl , Azaria Paz