Related papers: Dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to future …

Using lightning strikes as an example, two possible schemes are discussed for the attribution of changes in event frequency to climate change, and estimating the cost associated with them. The schemes determine the fraction of events that…

A new stochastic model for daily precipitation occurrence processes observed at multiple locations is developed. The modeling concept is to use the indicator function and the elliptical shape of multivariate Gaussian distribution to…

Climate change is predicted to lead to major changes in terrestrial ecosystems. However, significant differences in climate model projections for given scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, continue to hinder detailed assessment. Here we…

With a warming planet, tropical regions are expected to experience the brunt of climate change, with more intense and more volatile rainfall events. Currently, state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are known to struggle…

Most operational climate services providers base their seasonal predictions on initialised general circulation models (GCMs) or statistical techniques that fit past observations. GCMs require substantial computational resources, which…

The intensification and increased frequency of weather extremes is emerging as one of the most important aspects of climate change. We use Monte Carlo simulation to understand and predict the consequences of variations in trends (i.e.,…

Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…

Changes in extreme weather events are a potentially important aspect of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), yet, are difficult to attribute to ACC because the record length is often similar to, or shorter than, extreme-event return periods.…

Omega-blocks can trigger spatially compounding heat-precipitation extremes with severe societal impacts, as seen in September 2023 when a heatwave over France coincided with devastating floods in the Iberian Peninsula and Greece. Although…

In recent environmental studies extreme events have a great impact. The yearly and monthly maxima of environment related indices can be analysed by the tools of extreme value theory. For instance, the monthly maxima of the fire weather…

How regional heterogeneity in social and cultural processes drive--and respond to--climate dynamics is little studied. Here we present a coupled social-climate model stratified across five world regions and parameterized with geophysical,…

Extreme events, such as wave-storms, need to be characterized for coastal infrastructure design purposes. Such description should contain information on both the univariate behaviour and the joint-dependence of storm-variables. These two…

This paper shows an analysis of the gridded European precipitation data. We combine simple linear regression with data mining tools like clustering, and evaluate the strength of the results by the modern bootstrap methods. We have used the…

Rainfall exhibits extreme variability at many space and time scales and calls for a statistical description. Based on an analysis of radar measurements of precipitation over the tropical oceans, we introduce a new probability law for the…

Uncertainty in return level estimates for rare events, like the intensity of large rainfall events, makes it difficult to develop strategies to mitigate related hazards, like flooding. Latent spatial extremes models reduce uncertainty by…

We investigate the influence of time-varying meteoceanic conditions on coastal flooding under the prism of rare events. Focusing on conditions observed over half tidal cycles, we observe that such data fall within the framework of…

Northern Chile is one of the most arid regions in the world, with precipitation mainly occurring during austral summer, between December and April 1966-2015. The aim of this study is to classify the main weather regimes derived from sea…

The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to…

We report on a set of laboratory experiments to investigate the effect of Arctic warming on the amplitude and drift speed of the mid-latitude jet stream. Our results show that a progressive decrease of the meridional temperature difference…

Sites for next-generation telescopes are chosen decades before the first light of a telescope. Site selection is usually based on recent measurements over a period that is too short to account for long-term changes in observing conditions…