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In performative prediction, a predictive model impacts the distribution that generates future data, a phenomenon that is being ignored in classical supervised learning. In this closed-loop setting, the natural measure of performance named…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-24 Yulai Zhao

Performative learning addresses the increasingly pervasive situations in which algorithmic decisions may induce changes in the data distribution as a consequence of their public deployment. We propose a novel view in which these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Edwige Cyffers , Muni Sreenivas Pydi , Jamal Atif , Olivier Cappé

In performative prediction, predictions guide decision-making and hence can influence the distribution of future data. To date, work on performative prediction has focused on finding performatively stable models, which are the fixed points…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-17 John Miller , Juan C. Perdomo , Tijana Zrnic

Performative prediction is an emerging paradigm in machine learning that addresses scenarios where the model's prediction may induce a shift in the distribution of the data it aims to predict. Current works in this field often rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Guangzheng Zhong , Yang Liu , Jiming Liu

Following the wide-spread adoption of machine learning models in real-world applications, the phenomenon of performativity, i.e. model-dependent shifts in the test distribution, becomes increasingly prevalent. Unfortunately, since models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-21 Ivan Kirev , Lyuben Baltadzhiev , Nikola Konstantinov

Performative prediction, as introduced by Perdomo et al, is a framework for studying social prediction in which the data distribution itself changes in response to the deployment of a model. Existing work in this field usually hinges on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-14 Yatong Chen , Wei Tang , Chien-Ju Ho , Yang Liu

In performative learning, the data distribution reacts to the deployed model - for example, because strategic users adapt their features to game it - which creates a more complex dynamic than in classical supervised learning. One should…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Edwige Cyffers , Alireza Mirrokni , Marco Mondelli

When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Juan C. Perdomo , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Moritz Hardt

In performative stochastic optimization, decisions can influence the distribution of random parameters, rendering the data-generating process itself decision-dependent. In practice, decision-makers rarely have access to the true…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-27 Zhuangzhuang Jia , Yijie Wang , Roy Dong , Grani A. Hanasusanto

Performative prediction is a framework for learning models that influence the data they intend to predict. We focus on finding classifiers that are performatively stable, i.e. optimal for the data distribution they induce. Standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Mehrnaz Mofakhami , Ioannis Mitliagkas , Gauthier Gidel

Predictions in the social world generally influence the target of prediction, a phenomenon known as performativity. Self-fulfilling and self-negating predictions are examples of performativity. Of fundamental importance to economics,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Moritz Hardt , Celestine Mendler-Dünner

The field of performative prediction had its beginnings in 2020 with the seminal paper "Performative Prediction" by Perdomo et al., which established a novel machine learning setup where the deployment of a predictive model causes a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-12 Thomas Kehrenberg , Javier Sanguino , Jose A. Lozano , Novi Quadrianto

In performative prediction, the deployment of a predictive model triggers a shift in the data distribution. As these shifts are typically unknown ahead of time, the learner needs to deploy a model to get feedback about the distribution it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Meena Jagadeesan , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner

Performative prediction is a framework accounting for the shift in the data distribution induced by the prediction of a model deployed in the real world. Ensuring rapid convergence to a stable solution where the data distribution remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Pedram Khorsandi , Rushil Gupta , Mehrnaz Mofakhami , Simon Lacoste-Julien , Gauthier Gidel

Deployed supervised machine learning models make predictions that interact with and influence the world. This phenomenon is called performative prediction by Perdomo et al. (ICML 2020). It is an ongoing challenge to understand the influence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Gavin Brown , Shlomi Hod , Iden Kalemaj

Calibrating blackbox machine learning models to achieve risk control is crucial to ensure reliable decision-making. A rich line of literature has been studying how to calibrate a model so that its predictions satisfy explicit finite-sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-02 Victor Li , Baiting Chen , Yuzhen Mao , Qi Lei , Zhun Deng

We study the problem of monitoring model performance in dynamic environments where labeled data are limited. To this end, we propose prediction-powered risk monitoring (PPRM), a semi-supervised risk-monitoring approach based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Guangyi Zhang , Yunlong Cai , Guanding Yu , Osvaldo Simeone

Often in prediction tasks, the predictive model itself can influence the distribution of the target variable, a phenomenon termed performative prediction. Generally, this influence stems from strategic actions taken by stakeholders with a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-14 Daniele Bracale , Subha Maity , Felipe Maia Polo , Seamus Somerstep , Moulinath Banerjee , Yuekai Sun

Performative prediction aims to model scenarios where predictive outcomes subsequently influence the very systems they target. The pursuit of a performative optimum (PO) -- minimizing performative risk -- is generally reliant on modeling of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Songkai Xue , Yuekai Sun

An interesting phenomenon arises: Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) sometimes outperforms methods specifically designed for out-of-distribution tasks. This motivates an investigation into the reasons behind such behavior beyond algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Hong Zheng , Fei Teng
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