Related papers: Intraseasonal atmospheric variability under climat…
In most interacting many-body systems associated with some "emergent phenomena," we can identify sub-groups of degrees of freedom that relax on dramatically different time-scales. Time-scale separation of this kind is particularly helpful…
We study the behaviour at tipping points close to (smoothed) non-smooth fold bifurcations in one-dimensional oscillatory forced systems. The focus is the Stommel-Box, and related climate models, which are piecewise-smooth continuous…
The regimes of possible global atmospheric circulation patterns in an Earth-like atmosphere are explored using a simplified GCM based on the University of Hamburg's Portable University Model for the Atmosphere with simplified (linear)…
This paper studies a regression model with functional dependent and explanatory variables, both of which exhibit nonstationary dynamics. The model assumes that the nonstationary stochastic trends of the dependent variable are explained by…
Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are also robust results of coupled general circulation models. In spite of this success model-to-model variability…
We study a message passing model, applicable also to traffic problems. The model is implemented in a discrete lattice, where particles move towards their destination, with fluctuations around the minimal distance path. A repulsive…
We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle and seasonal components in spatio-temporal models and apply it to investigate the existence of climate changes in temperature and rainfall series. The method incorporates critical…
Relatively long-period nonsynchronized planets---such as warm Jupiters---potentially retain the primordial rotation, eccentricity, and obliquity that might encapsulate information on planetary climate and formation processes. To date, there…
The steady and transient response of "dynamically" dry and moist atmospheres to uniform sea-surface temperature (SST) is studied. Specifically, the latent heat (Lv) of water vapor is varied, so that for small Lv, water substance is…
Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…
Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…
Transport of a particle in a spatially periodic harmonic potential under the influence of a slowly time-dependent unbiased periodic external force is studied. The equations of motion are the same as in the problem of a slowly forced…
The natural cycles of the surface-to-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO$_2$) and other important greenhouse gases are changing in response to human influences. These changes need to be quantified to understand climate change and its…
In this paper, a comprehensive examination of the temperature- and bias-dependent diffusion regimes of underdamped Brownian particles is presented. A temperature threshold for a transition between anomalous and normal diffusive behaviors is…
The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
We examine how coupling functions in the theory of dynamical systems provide a quantitative window into climate dynamics. Previously we have shown that a one-dimensional periodic non-autonomous stochastic dynamical system can simulate the…
Autonomous driving in dense, dynamic environments requires decision-making systems that can exploit both spatial structure and long-horizon temporal dependencies while remaining robust to uncertainty. This work presents a novel framework…
Charged particles in a magnetosphere are spontaneously attracted to a planet while increasing their kinetic energy via inward diffusion process. A constraint on particles' micro-scale adiabatic invariants restricts the class of motions…
The operation of power systems is affected by diverse technical, economic and social factors. Social behaviour determines load patterns, electricity markets regulate the generation and weather-dependent renewables introduce power…