Related papers: Intraseasonal atmospheric variability under climat…

The Earth's climate system is a classical example of a multiscale, multiphysics dynamical system with an extremely large number of active degrees of freedom, exhibiting variability on scales ranging from micrometers and seconds in cloud…

The three-dimensional baroclinic quasigeostrophic flow model has been widely used to study basic mechanisms in oceanic flows and climate dynamics. In this paper, we consider this flow model under random wind forcing and time-periodic…

Atmospheric flows exhibit fluctuations of all scales (space -time) ranging from turbulence (millimeters-seconds) to climate (thousands of kilometers-years). The apparently random fluctuations however exhibit long-range spatio-temporal…

Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and -…

Non-autonomous dynamical systems help us to understand the implications of real systems which are in contact with their environment as it actually occurs in nature. Here, we focus on systems where a parameter changes with time at small but…

We use a linear shallow-water model to investigate the global circulation of the atmospheres of tidally locked planets. Simulations, observations, and simple models show that if these planets are sufficiently rapidly rotating, their…

Using an intermediate complexity climate model (Planet Simulator), we investigate the so-called Snowball Earth transition. For certain values of the solar constant, the climate system allows two different stable states: one of them is the…

We use continuous wavelet tools to characterize the dynamics of climate change across time and frequencies. This approach allows us to capture the changing patterns in the relationship between global mean temperature anomalies and climate…

While it is expected that the large-scale tropical circulation should undergo some changes in a warmer climate, it remains an open question whether its characteristic features, such as the Hadley cell, the intertropical convergence zone, or…

Water vapor is not only Earth's dominant greenhouse gas. Through the release of latent heat when it condenses, it also plays an active role in dynamic processes that shape the global circulation of the atmosphere and thus climate. Here we…

The atmosphere of a hot jupiter may be subject to a thermo-resistive instability, in which the increasing electrical conductivity with temperature leads to runaway Ohmic heating. We introduce a simplified model of the local dynamics in the…

Characterising the stratosphere as a turbulent system, temporal fluctuations often show different correlations for different time scales as well as intermittent behaviour that cannot be captured by a single scaling exponent. In this study,…

Statistical methods are required to evaluate and quantify the uncertainty in environmental processes, such as land and sea surface temperature, in a changing climate. Typically, annual harmonics are used to characterize the variation in the…

The understanding of the fundamental properties of the climate system has long benefitted from the use of simple numerical models able to parsimoniously represent the essential ingredients of its processes. Here we introduce a new model for…

Climate models are often affected by long-term drift that is revealed by the evolution of global variables such as the ocean temperature or the surface air temperature. This spurious trend reduces the fidelity to initial conditions and has…

Complex ocean systems such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play key roles in the climate, and current models predict shifts in their strength and area under climate change. However, the physical processes underlying these changes are…

Variations in stratospheric atmospheric circulation significantly influence tropospheric weather and climate, and understanding these variations can guide stratospheric aircraft development and operations. Despite a century of progress,…

We present a new conceptual model of the Earth's glacial-interglacial cycles, one leading to governing equations for which the vector field has a hyperplane of discontinuities. This work extends the classic Budyko- and Sellers-type…

Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a key predictor of climate change. However, it is not very well constrained, either by climate models or by observational data. The reasons for this include strong internal variability and forcing on…