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We study the estimation of causal estimand involving the joint distribution of treatment and control outcomes for a single unit. In typical causal inference settings, it is impossible to observe both outcomes simultaneously, which places…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

Many causal quantities are only partially identifiable due to the inherent missingness of potential outcomes, and the associated partial identification (PI) sets can be obtained by solving an optimal transport (OT) problem. Covariates often…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

Causal inference from observational datasets often relies on measuring and adjusting for covariates. In practice, measurements of the covariates can often be noisy and/or biased, or only measurements of their proxies may be available.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Wenshuo Guo , Mingzhang Yin , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper bounds; however, unless the covariates…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-19 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Asher Spector

Bi-causal optimal transport (OT) is a natural framework for comparing and coupling stochastic processes under nonanticipative information constraints, with important applications in robust finance, sequential uncertainty quantification, and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Haoyang Cao , Jesse Hoekstra , Renyuan Xu , Yumin Xu , Ruixun Zhang

Many applications of causal inference require using treatment effects estimated on a study population to make decisions in a separate target population. We consider the challenging setting where there are covariates that are observed in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Khurram Yamin , Vibhhu Sharma , Ed Kennedy , Bryan Wilder

Matching on covariates is a well-established framework for estimating causal effects in observational studies. The principal challenge stems from the often high-dimensional structure of the problem. Many methods have been introduced to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-12 Florian Gunsilius , Yuliang Xu

Probabilities of Causation (PoC) play a fundamental role in decision-making in law, health care and public policy. Nevertheless, their point identification is challenging, requiring strong assumptions, in the absence of which only bounds…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-13 Numair Sani , Atalanti A. Mastakouri

Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects (PRTEs) are generally not point-identified under standard Instrumental Variable (IV) assumptions when the instrument generates limited support in treatment propensity. We show that PRTE partial…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Randomized experiments are an excellent tool for estimating internally valid causal effects with the sample at hand, but their external validity is frequently debated. While classical results on the estimation of Population Average…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-13 Apoorva Lal , Wenjing Zheng , Simon Ejdemyr

Causal abstraction (CA) theory establishes formal criteria for relating multiple structural causal models (SCMs) at different levels of granularity by defining maps between them. These maps have significant relevance for real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-14 Yorgos Felekis , Fabio Massimo Zennaro , Nicola Branchini , Theodoros Damoulas

The ability to generalize experimental results from randomized control trials (RCTs) across locations is crucial for informing policy decisions in targeted regions. Such generalization is often hindered by the lack of identifiability due to…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-10 Xinkun Nie , Guido Imbens , Stefan Wager

Given samples from two joint distributions, we consider the problem of Optimal Transportation (OT) between them when conditioned on a common variable. We focus on the general setting where the conditioned variable may be continuous, and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Piyushi Manupriya , Rachit Keerti Das , Sayantan Biswas , Saketha Nath Jagarlapudi

Imbalance in covariate distributions leads to biased estimates of causal effects. Weighting methods attempt to correct this imbalance but rely on specifying models for the treatment assignment mechanism, which is unknown in observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-13 Eric Dunipace

In most nonrandomized observational studies, differences between treatment groups may arise not only due to the treatment but also because of the effect of confounders. Therefore, causal inference regarding the treatment effect is not as…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-04 Debashis Ghosh

Augmenting the control arm in clinical trials with external data can improve statistical power for demonstrating treatment effects. In many time-to-event outcome trials, participants are subject to truncation by death. Direct application of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Zehao Su , Helene C. W. Rytgaard , Henrik Ravn , Frank Eriksson

Optimal Transport (OT) is a fundamental tool for comparing probability distributions, but its exact computation remains prohibitive for large datasets. In this work, we introduce novel families of upper and lower bounds for the OT problem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-26 David Alvarez-Melis , Nicolò Fusi , Lester Mackey , Tal Wagner

Recent methodological research in causal inference has focused on effects of stochastic interventions, which assign treatment randomly, often according to subject-specific covariates. In this work, we demonstrate that the usual notion of…

When estimating causal effects, it is important to assess external validity, i.e., determine how useful a given study is to inform a practical question for a specific target population. One challenge is that the covariate distribution in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-03 Zhenghao Zeng , Edward H. Kennedy , Lisa M. Bodnar , Ashley I. Naimi

Optimal transport (OT) is a powerful geometric and probabilistic tool for finding correspondences and measuring similarity between two distributions. Yet, its original formulation relies on the existence of a cost function between the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Ievgen Redko , Titouan Vayer , Rémi Flamary , Nicolas Courty
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