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A discrete time stochastic model for a multiagent system given in terms of a large collection of interacting Markov chains is studied. The evolution of the interacting particles is described through a time inhomogeneous transition…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-06-17 Amarjit Budhiraja , Pierre Del Moral , Sylvain Rubenthaler

Systems of interacting continuous-time Markov chains are a powerful model class, but inference is typically intractable in high dimensional settings. Auxiliary information, such as noisy observations, is typically only available at discrete…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-21 Giosue Migliorini , Padhraic Smyth

Enlargement of filtrations is a classical topic in the general theory of stochastic processes. This theory has been applied to stochastic finance in order to analyze models with insider information. In this paper we study initial…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2011-08-25 Dario Gasbarra , José Igor Morlanes , Esko Valkeila

This is a free textbook suitable for a one-semester course on Markov chains, covering basics of finite-state chains, many classical models, asymptotic behavior and mixing times, Monte Carlo methods, and martingales and harmonic functions.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-17 Soumik Pal , Tim Mesikepp

We elaborate the idea behind Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in a mathematically coherent, yet simple and understandable way. To this end, we proof a pivotal convergence theorem for finite Markov chains and a minimal version of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-30 Tobias Siems

As a model of market price, we introduce a new type of random walk in a moving potential which is approximated by a quadratic function with its center given by the moving average of its own trace. The properties of resulting random walks…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Misako Takayasu , Takayuki Mizuno , Hideki Takayasu

We present a novel approach to detecting and utilizing symmetries in probabilistic graphical models with two main contributions. First, we present a scalable approach to computing generating sets of permutation groups representing the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-08-12 Mathias Niepert

We present a novel approach to detecting and utilizing symmetries in probabilistic graphical models with two main contributions. First, we present a scalable approach to computing generating sets of permutation groups representing the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-29 Mathias Niepert

Many applications in networked control require intermittent access of a controller to a system, as in event-triggered systems or information constrained control applications. Motivated by such applications and extending previous work on…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-30 Ramiro Zurkowski , Serdar Yüksel , Tamás Linder

Markov jump processes (or continuous-time Markov chains) are a simple and important class of continuous-time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of simulating from the posterior distribution over paths in these models,…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-21 Vinayak Rao , Yee Whye Teh

Questions are posed regarding the influence that the column sums of the transition probabilities of a stochastic matrix (with row sums all one) have on the stationary distribution, the mean first passage times and the Kemeny constant of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-05 Jeffrey J. Hunter

A method of constructing Markov chains on finite state spaces is provided. The chain is specified by three constraints: stationarity, dependence and marginal distributions. The generalized Pythagorean theorem in information geometry plays a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-26 Tomonari Sei

The stationary one-dimensional tight-binding Schredinger equation with a weak diagonal long-range correlated disorder in the potential is studied. An algorithm for constructing the discrete binary on-site potential exhibiting a hybrid…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2007-05-23 O. V. Usatenko , S. S. Melnik , V. A. Yampol'skii , M. Johansson , L. Kroon , R. Riklund

Motivated by various applications, we describe the scaling limits of bivariate Markov chains $(X,J)$ on $\mathbb Z_+ \times \{1,\ldots,\kappa\}$ where $X$ can be viewed as a position marginal and $\{1,\ldots,\kappa\}$ is a set of $\kappa$…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-20 Bénédicte Haas , Robin Stephenson

The asymptotic variance is an important criterion to evaluate the performance of Markov chains, especially for the central limit theorems. We give the variational formulas for the asymptotic variance of discrete-time (non-reversible) Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-29 Lu-Jing Huang , Yong-Hua Mao

Markov chains have been widely employed as a fundamental model in the studies of probabilistic and stochastic communicating and concurrent systems. It is well-understood that decomposition techniques play a key role in reachability analysis…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-02-15 Ji Guan , Yuan Feng , Mingsheng Ying

We present a method to sample Markov-chain trajectories constrained to both the initial and final conditions, which we term Markov bridges. The trajectories are conditioned to end in a specific state at a given time. We derive the master…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-01-07 Guillaume Le Treut , Sarah Ancheta , Greg Huber , Henri Orland , David Yllanes

By proving a local limit theorem for higher-order transitions, we determine the time required for necklace chains to be close to stationarity. Because necklace chains, built by arranging identical smaller chains around a directed cycle, are…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-22 Elizabeth L. Wilmer

We present a novel technique for the determination of the topological susceptibility (related to the variance of the distribution of global topological charge) from lattice gauge theory simulations, based on maximum-likelihood analysis of…

We define fully coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations on spaces related to continuous time, finite state Markov Chains. Existence and uniqueness results of the fully coupled forward-backward stochastic differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-29 Shaolin Ji , Haodong Liu , Xinling Xiao
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