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We focus on the problem of uncertainty informed allocation of medical resources (vaccines) to heterogeneous populations for managing epidemic spread. We tackle two related questions: (1) For a compartmental ordinary differential equation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-07-04 Samarth Gupta , Saurabh Amin

Hard-to-predict bursts of COVID-19 pandemic revealed significance of statistical modeling which would resolve spatio-temporal correlations over geographical areas, for example spread of the infection over a city with census tract…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-04-27 Mikhail Krechetov , Amir Mohammad Esmaieeli Sikaroudi , Alon Efrat , Valentin Polishchuk , Michael Chertkov

We consider the problem of identifying an infection source based only on an observed set of infected nodes in a network, assuming that the infection process follows a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. We derive an estimator…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2013-09-17 Wuqiong Luo , Wee Peng Tay

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a vast amount of growth for statistical models and methods which characterize features of disease outbreaks. One class of models that came to light in this regard has been the use of self-exciting point…

Applications · Statistics 2022-04-29 Peter Boyd , James Molyneux

With the exponential growth in the world population and the constant increase in human mobility, the danger of outbreaks of epidemics is rising. Especially in high density urban areas such as public transport and transfer points, where…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2012-01-04 Mei Shan , Zhou Xuan , Zhu Yifan , Zu Zhenghu , Zheng Tao , A. V. Boukhanovsky , P. M. A Sloot

The developing field of enhanced diagnostic techniques in the diagnosis of infectious diseases, constitutes a crucial domain in modern healthcare. By utilizing Gas Chromatography-Ion Mobility Spectrometry (GC-IMS) data and incorporating…

Identifying anomalies and contamination in datasets is important in a wide variety of settings. In this paper, we describe a new technique for estimating contamination in large, discrete valued datasets. Our approach considers the normal…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-06-16 Matthew L. Malloy , Scott Alfeld , Paul Barford

Urban areas with larger and more connected populations offer an auspicious environment for contagion processes such as the spread of pathogens. Empirical evidence reveals a systematic increase in the rates of certain sexually transmitted…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-09-18 Oscar Patterson-Lomba , Andres Gomez-Lievano

This work aims to assess the risks of Covid-19 disease spread in diverse daily-life situations (referred to as scenarios) involving crowds of maskless pedestrians, mostly outdoors. More concretely, we develop a method to infer the global…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-11-04 Willy Garcia , Simon Mendez , Baptiste Fray , Alexandre Nicolas

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the importance of accurately forecasting contagion dynamics and learning infection parameters into sharp focus. At the same time, effective policy-making requires knowledge of the uncertainty on such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-04 Thomas Gaskin , Tim Conrad , Grigorios A. Pavliotis , Christof Schütte

Motivated by the study of controlling (curing) epidemics, we consider the spread of an SI process on a known graph, where we have a limited budget to use to transition infected nodes back to the susceptible state (i.e., to cure nodes).…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-02-27 Jessica Hoffmann , Constantine Caramanis

The emergence of novel infectious agents presents challenges to statistical models of disease transmission. These challenges arise from limited, poor-quality data and an incomplete understanding of the agent. Moreover, outbreaks manifest…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 Jiasheng Shi , Jeffrey S. Morris , David M. Rubin , Jing Huang

This paper develops and analyzes optimization models for rapid detection of viruses in large contact networks. In the model, a virus spreads in a stochastic manner over an undirected connected graph, under various assumptions on the spread…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-16 Sudesh K. Agrawal , John J. Hasenbein

There are many hard-to-reconcile numbers circulating concerning Covid-19. Using reports from random testing, the fatality ratio per infection is evaluated and used to extract further information on the actual fraction of infections and the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-25 Allen Caldwell , Vasyl Hafych , Oliver SChulz , Lolian Shtembari

The epidemiology has recently witnessed great advances based on computational models. Its scope and impact are getting wider thanks to the new data sources feeding analytical frameworks and models. Besides traditional variables considered…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-11-13 David Pastor-Escuredo

Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Luke Murray Kearney , Emma L Davis , Matt J Keeling

Understanding how widely COVID-19 has spread is critical for examining the pandemic's progression. Despite efforts to carefully monitor the pandemic, the number of confirmed cases may underestimate the total number of infections. We…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-27 Christina Bohk-Ewald , Christian Dudel , Mikko Myrskylä

Infectious diseases are a threat for human health with tremendous impact on our society at large. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is the latest example of a highly infectious disease ravaging the world, since late…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-17 Giacomo Cacciapaglia , Corentin Cot , Michele Della Morte , Stefan Hohenegger , Francesco Sannino , Shahram Vatani

Mathematical models are increasing adopted for setting targets for disease prevention and control. As model-informed policies are implemented, however, the inaccuracies of some forecasts become apparent, for example overprediction of…

This paper deals with the statistical signal pro- cessing over graphs for tracking infection diffusion in social networks. Infection (or Information) diffusion is modeled using the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. Mean field…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-11-01 Vikram Krishnamurthy , Sujay Bhatt , Tavis Pedersen