Related papers: What is causal about causal models and representat…
Causal inference from observational data can be viewed as a missing data problem arising from a hypothetical population-scale randomized trial matched to the observational study. This links a target trial protocol with a corresponding…
Causal learning is the cognitive process of developing the capability of making causal inferences based on available information, often guided by normative principles. This process is prone to errors and biases, such as the illusion of…
This paper studies the problem of globally optimizing a variable of interest that is part of a causal model in which a sequence of interventions can be performed. This problem arises in biology, operational research, communications and,…
In social sciences and economics, causal inference traditionally focuses on assessing the impact of predefined treatments (or interventions) on predefined outcomes, such as the effect of education programs on earnings. Causal discovery, in…
Discussions on causal relations in real life often consider variables for which the definition of causality is unclear since the notion of interventions on the respective variables is obscure. Asking 'what qualifies an action for being an…
Methods for inferring average causal effects have traditionally relied on two key assumptions: (i) the intervention received by one unit cannot causally influence the outcome of another; and (ii) units can be organized into non-overlapping…
A new method is developed to represent probabilistic relations on multiple random events. Where previously knowledge bases containing probabilistic rules were used for this purpose, here a probability distribution over the relations is…
Probabilistic machine learning models are often insufficient to help with decisions on interventions because those models find correlations - not causal relationships. If observational data is only available and experimentation are…
Discrete Bayesian Networks have been very successful as a framework both for inference and for expressing certain causal hypotheses. In this paper we present a class of graphical models called the chain event graph (CEG) models, that…
Understanding predictions made by deep neural networks is notoriously difficult, but also crucial to their dissemination. As all machine learning based methods, they are as good as their training data, and can also capture unwanted biases.…
Causal inference plays an important role in explanatory analysis and decision making across various fields like statistics, marketing, health care, and education. Its main task is to estimate treatment effects and make intervention…
Can the direction of time and the causal structure of space-time be inferred from operational principles? Causal models and tensor networks offer complementary perspectives: the former encodes cause-effect relations via directed graphs,…
We present a novel task that measures how people generalize objects' causal powers based on observing a single (Experiment 1) or a few (Experiment 2) causal interactions between object pairs. We propose a computational modeling framework…
Structural equation models and Bayesian networks have been widely used to analyze causal relations between continuous variables. In such frameworks, linear acyclic models are typically used to model the datagenerating process of variables.…
The standard approach to causal modelling especially in social and health sciences is the potential outcomes framework due to Neyman and Rubin. In this framework, observations are thought to be drawn from a distribution over variables of…
Identifying a causal model of an IT system is fundamental to many branches of systems engineering and operation. Such a model can be used to predict the effects of control actions, optimize operations, diagnose failures, detect intrusions,…
We define a Causal Decision Problem as a Decision Problem where the available actions, the family of uncertain events and the set of outcomes are related through the variables of a Causal Graphical Model $\mathcal{G}$. A solution criteria…
Objective: The growing availability of large-scale observational clinical datasets and challenges in conducting randomized controlled trials have spurred enthusiasm in using causal machine learning (ML) for causal inference in observational…
We consider the problem of predicting a response $Y$ from a set of covariates $X$ when test and training distributions differ. Since such differences may have causal explanations, we consider test distributions that emerge from…
Behavioral cloning reduces policy learning to supervised learning by training a discriminative model to predict expert actions given observations. Such discriminative models are non-causal: the training procedure is unaware of the causal…