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Latent neural stochastic differential equations (SDEs) have recently emerged as a promising approach for learning generative models from stochastic time series data. However, they systematically underestimate the noise level inherent in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Linus Heck , Maximilian Gelbrecht , Michael T. Schaub , Niklas Boers

Dosing models often use differential equations to model biological dynamics. Neural differential equations in particular can learn to predict the derivative of a process, which permits predictions at irregular points of time. However, this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Stav Belogolovsky , Ido Greenberg , Danny Eytan , Shie Mannor

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are established tools to model physical phenomena whose dynamics are affected by random noise. By estimating parameters of an SDE intrinsic randomness of a system around its drift can be identified…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-03 Umberto Picchini , Susanne Ditlevsen

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) use a neural network to model the instantaneous rate of change in the state of a system. However, despite their apparent suitability for dynamics-governed time-series, NODEs present a few…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-18 Alexander Norcliffe , Cristian Bodnar , Ben Day , Jacob Moss , Pietro Liò

Representations of sequential data are commonly based on the assumption that observed sequences are realizations of an unknown underlying stochastic process, where the learning problem includes determination of the model parameters. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-17 Ronny Hug , Wolfgang Hübner , Michael Arens

Many successful methods to learn dynamical systems from data have recently been introduced. However, ensuring that the inferred dynamics preserve known constraints, such as conservation laws or restrictions on the allowed system states,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Alistair White , Niki Kilbertus , Maximilian Gelbrecht , Niklas Boers

This article develops a stochastic differential equation (SDE) for modeling the temporal evolution of queue length dynamics at signalized intersections. Inspired by the observed quasiperiodic and self-similar characteristics of the queue…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-18 Shakib Mustavee , Shaurya Agarwal , Arvind Singh

The manifold hypothesis suggests that high-dimensional neural time series lie on a low-dimensional manifold shaped by simpler underlying dynamics. To uncover this structure, latent dynamical variable models such as state-space models,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Pedram Rajaei , Maryam Ostadsharif Memar , Navid Ziaei , Behzad Nazari , Ali Yousefi

Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDEs) are a state-of-the-art tool for supervised learning with irregularly sampled time series (Kidger, 2020). However, no theoretical analysis of their performance has been provided yet, and it…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Linus Bleistein , Agathe Guilloux

Scientific machine learning is an emerging field that broadly describes the combination of scientific computing and machine learning to address challenges in science and engineering. Within the context of differential equations, this has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Laurens R. Lueg , Victor Alves , Daniel Schicksnus , John R. Kitchin , Carl D. Laird , Lorenz T. Biegler

Non-uniform sampling arises when an experimenter does not have full control over the sampling characteristics of the process under investigation. Moreover, it is introduced intentionally in algorithms such as Bayesian optimization and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-03 Stijn de Waele

Controlling continuous-time dynamical systems is generally a two step process: first, identify or model the system dynamics with differential equations, then, minimize the control objectives to achieve optimal control function and optimal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Cheng Chi

Neural controlled differential equations (CDEs) are the continuous-time analogue of recurrent neural networks, as Neural ODEs are to residual networks, and offer a memory-efficient continuous-time way to model functions of potentially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-22 James Morrill , Cristopher Salvi , Patrick Kidger , James Foster , Terry Lyons

The conjoining of dynamical systems and deep learning has become a topic of great interest. In particular, neural differential equations (NDEs) demonstrate that neural networks and differential equation are two sides of the same coin.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-08 Patrick Kidger

While exogenous variables have a major impact on performance improvement in time series analysis, inter-series correlation and time dependence among them are rarely considered in the present continuous methods. The dynamical systems of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Penglei Gao , Xi Yang , Rui Zhang , Ping Guo , John Y. Goulermas , Kaizhu Huang

Generating high-quality time series data has emerged as a critical research topic due to its broad utility in supporting downstream time series mining tasks. A major challenge lies in modeling the intrinsic stochasticity of temporal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-20 He Panjing , Cheng Mingyue , Li Li , Zhang XiaoHan

Modeling stochastic and irregularly sampled time series is a challenging problem found in a wide range of applications, especially in medicine. Neural stochastic differential equations (Neural SDEs) are an attractive modeling technique for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Xi Zhang , Yuan Pu , Yuki Kawamura , Andrew Loza , Yoshua Bengio , Dennis L. Shung , Alexander Tong

We present a novel deep learning method for estimating time-dependent parameters in Markov processes through discrete sampling. Departing from conventional machine learning, our approach reframes parameter approximation as an optimization…

Fractional Differential Equations (FDEs) are essential tools for modelling complex systems in science and engineering. They extend the traditional concepts of differentiation and integration to non-integer orders, enabling a more precise…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-27 C. Coelho , M. Fernanda P. Costa , L. L. Ferrás

We develop a new continuous-time stochastic gradient descent method for optimizing over the stationary distribution of stochastic differential equation (SDE) models. The algorithm continuously updates the SDE model's parameters using an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-29 Ziheng Wang , Justin Sirignano