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Inference-Time Scaling (ITS) improves language models by allocating more computation at generation time. Particle Filtering (PF) has emerged as a strong ITS method for complex mathematical reasoning tasks, but it is vulnerable when guided…

Online joint estimation of unknown parameters and states in a dynamical system with uncertainty quantification is crucial in many applications. For example, digital twins dynamically update their knowledge of model parameters and states to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-01 Liliang Wang , Alex Gorodetsky

We introduce a novel particle-based algorithm for end-to-end training of latent diffusion models. We reformulate the training task as minimizing a free energy functional and obtain a gradient flow that does so. By approximating the latter…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Tim Y. J. Wang , Juan Kuntz , O. Deniz Akyildiz

Diffusion models demonstrate remarkable capabilities in capturing complex data distributions and have achieved compelling results in many generative tasks. While they have recently been extended to dense prediction tasks such as depth…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Haorui Ji , Taojun Lin , Hongdong Li

Auxiliary particle filters (APFs) are a class of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for Bayesian inference in state-space models. In their original derivation, APFs operate in an extended state space using an auxiliary variable to improve…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-17 Nicola Branchini , Víctor Elvira

Diffusion models (DMs) have proven to be effective in modeling high-dimensional distributions, leading to their widespread adoption for representing complex priors in Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs). However, current DM-based posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Haoxuan Chen , Yinuo Ren , Martin Renqiang Min , Lexing Ying , Zachary Izzo

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

Our article deals with Bayesian inference for a general state space model with the simulated likelihood computed by the particle filter. We show empirically that the partially or fully adapted particle filters can be much more efficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-06-11 Michael Pitt , Ralph Silva , Paolo Giordani , Robert Kohn

We analyze the performance of different resampling strategies for the regularized particle filter regarding parameter estimation. We show in particular, building on analytical insight obtained in the linear Gaussian case, that resampling…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-12 Pierre Carmier , Olexiy Kyrgyzov , Paul-Henry Cournède

We revisit the problem of physics-informed regression, and propose a method that directly computes the state at the prediction point, simultaneously with the derivative and curvature information of the existing samples. We frame each…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-16 Lorenzo Sabug , Eric Kerrigan

This paper proposes a novel particle filter for tracking time-varying states of multiple targets jointly from superpositional data, which depend on the sum of contributions of all targets. Many conventional tracking methods rely on…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-08-26 Nobutaka Ito , Simon Godsill

Recursive estimation of nonlinear dynamical systems is an important problem that arises in several engineering applications. Consistent and accurate propagation of uncertainties is important to ensuring good estimation performance. It is…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-03-16 Dilshad Raihan Akkam Veettil , Suman Chakravorty

We present a Bayesian data fusion method to approximate a posterior distribution from an ensemble of particle estimates that only have access to subsets of the data. Our approach relies on approximate probabilistic inference of model…

Computation · Statistics 2020-10-28 Caleb Miller , Michael D. Schneider , Jem N. Corcoran , Jason Bernstein

The derivation of suitable analytical models is an important step for the design and analysis of molecular communication systems. However, many existing models have limited applicability in practical scenarios due to various simplifications…

Emerging Technologies · Computer Science 2019-11-28 Maximilian Schäfer , Wayan Wicke , Werner Haselmayr , Rudolf Rabenstein , Robert Schober

In recent years, large-scale pre-trained diffusion models have demonstrated their outstanding capabilities in image and video generation tasks. However, existing models tend to produce visual objects commonly found in the training dataset,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Changgu Chen , Libing Yang , Xiaoyan Yang , Lianggangxu Chen , Gaoqi He , CHangbo Wang , Yang Li

Bayesian inference for inverse problems hinges critically on the choice of priors. In the absence of specific prior information, population-level distributions can serve as effective priors for parameters of interest. With the advent of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-02-11 Gabriel Missael Barco , Alexandre Adam , Connor Stone , Yashar Hezaveh , Laurence Perreault-Levasseur

We introduce a new online approach for constructing proposal distributions in particle filters using a forward scheme. Our method progressively incorporates future observations to refine proposals. This is in contrast to backward-scheme…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-23 Sylvain Procope-Mamert , Nicolas Chopin , Maud Delattre , Guillaume Kon Kam King

Particle filtering is used to compute good nonlinear estimates of complex systems. It samples trajectories from a chosen distribution and computes the estimate as a weighted average. Easy-to-sample distributions often lead to degenerate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-07 Fernando Gama , Nicolas Zilberstein , Richard G. Baraniuk , Santiago Segarra

Conditional particle filters (CPFs) are powerful smoothing algorithms for general nonlinear/non-Gaussian hidden Markov models. However, CPFs can be inefficient or difficult to apply with diffuse initial distributions, which are common in…

Computation · Statistics 2020-11-23 Santeri Karppinen , Matti Vihola

Diffusion models have recently driven significant breakthroughs in generative modeling. While state-of-the-art models produce high-quality samples on average, individual samples can still be low quality. Detecting such samples without human…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Metod Jazbec , Eliot Wong-Toi , Guoxuan Xia , Dan Zhang , Eric Nalisnick , Stephan Mandt