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In data assimilation, an ensemble provides a way to propagate the probability density of a system described by a nonlinear prediction model. Although a large ensemble size is required for statistical accuracy, the ensemble size is typically…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-11-12 Bosu Choi , Yoonsang Lee

Model extrapolation to unseen flow is one of the biggest challenges facing data-driven turbulence modeling, especially for models with high dimensional inputs that involve many flow features. In this study we review previous efforts on…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2020-01-16 Shirui Luo , Jiahuan Cui , Madhu Vellakal , Jian Liu , Enyi Jiang , Seid Koric , Volodymyr Kindratenko

We propose a data assimilation scheme that produces the analyses for a global and an embedded limited area model simultaneously, considering forecast information from both models. The purpose of the proposed approach is twofold. First, we…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2011-08-20 Young-noh Yoon , Brian R. Hunt , Edward Ott , Istvan Szunyogh

In this study, ensembles of experimental data are presented and utilized to compare and validate two models used in the simulation of variable density, compressible turbulent mixing. Though models of this kind (Reynolds Averaged Navier…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-03-07 Benjamin Musci , Britton Olson , Samuel Petter , Gokul Pathikonda , Devesh Ranjan

In this paper, we introduce a new, local formulation of the ensemble Kalman Filter approach for atmospheric data assimilation. Our scheme is based on the hypothesis that, when the Earth's surface is divided up into local regions of moderate…

We show that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is an effective tool for mitigating non-flow effects in flow analysis. To this end, one constructs two toy models that simulate non-flow contributions corresponding to particle decay and…

The rapid rise of air pollution events necessitates accurate, real-time monitoring for informed mitigation strategies. Data Assimilation (DA) methods provide promising solutions, but their effectiveness hinges heavily on optimal measurement…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Ichrak Mokhtari , Walid Bechkit , Mohamed Sami Assenine , Hervé Rivano

Using a dynamical model to make predictions about a system has many sources of error. These can include errors in how the model was initialised but also errors in the dynamics of the model itself. For many applications in data assimilation,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-07-07 P. A. Browne

The control of spatio-temporally chaos is challenging because of high dimensionality and unpredictability. Model-free reinforcement learning (RL) discovers optimal control policies by interacting with the system, typically requiring…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-13 Defne E. Ozan , Andrea Nóvoa , Georgios Rigas , Luca Magri

This work presents a converged framework of Machine-Learning Assisted Turbulence Modeling (MLATM). Our objective is to develop a turbulence model directly learning from high fidelity data (DNS/LES) with eddy-viscosity hypothesis induced.…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2019-07-09 Weishuo Liu , Jian Fang , Stefano Rolfo , Lipeng Lu

Data assimilation (DA) is a fundamental computational technique that integrates numerical simulation models and observation data on the basis of Bayesian statistics. Originally developed for meteorology, especially weather forecasting, DA…

Numerical modeling of the intensity and evolution of flood events are affected by multiple sources of uncertainty such as precipitation and land surface conditions. To quantify and curb these uncertainties, an ensemble-based simulation and…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-02-17 Junyu Wei , Xiangyu Luo , Weihong Liao , Xiaohui Lei , Jianshi Zhao , Haocheng Huang , Hao Wang

Data assimilation algorithms estimate the state of a dynamical system from partial observations, where the successful performance of these algorithms hinges on costly parameter tuning and on employing an accurate model for the dynamics.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Melissa Adrian , Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Rebecca Willett

High-fidelity simulations are essential for predicting material behavior under high-velocity impact (HVI), but their accuracy depends on material models and parameters that are often calibrated by manual fitting to multiple costly…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-04-01 Rong Jin , Guangyao Wang , Xingsheng Sun

Complex systems are often described with competing models. Such divergence of interpretation on the system may stem from model fidelity, mathematical simplicity, and more generally, our limited knowledge of the underlying processes.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-07-21 Lun Yang , Akil Narayan , Peng Wang

Data assimilation, consisting in the combination of a dynamical model with a set of noisy and incomplete observations in order to infer the state of a system over time, involves uncertainty in most settings. Building upon an existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Anthony Frion , David S Greenberg

In this work, we combine a stochastic model reduction with a particle filter augmented with tempering and jittering, and apply the combined algorithm to a damped and forced incompressible 2D Euler dynamics defined on a simply connected…

Applications · Statistics 2020-08-25 Colin Cotter , Dan Crisan , Darryl D. Holm , Wei Pan , Igor Shevchenko

Data assimilation provides algorithms for widespread applications in various fields. It is of practical use to deal with a large amount of information in the complex system that is hard to estimate. Weather forecasting is one of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Yihua Yang

In a data stream environment, classification models must handle concept drift efficiently and effectively. Ensemble methods are widely used for this purpose; however, the ones available in the literature either use a large data chunk to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-15 Sepehr Bakhshi , Pouya Ghahramanian , Hamed Bonab , Fazli Can

Estimating background-error covariances remains a core challenge in variational data assimilation (DA). Operational systems typically approximate these covariances by transformations that separate geostrophically balanced components from…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-21 Boštjan Melinc , Uroš Perkan , Žiga Zaplotnik