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We extend conformal inference to general settings that allow for time series data. Our proposal is developed as a randomization method and accounts for potential serial dependence by including block structures in the permutation scheme. As…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-09 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wuthrich , Yinchu Zhu

If you are predicting the label $y$ of a new object with $\hat y$, how confident are you that $y = \hat y$? Conformal prediction methods provide an elegant framework for answering such question by building a $100 (1 - \alpha)\%$ confidence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-11 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

To discover intrinsic inter-class transition probabilities underlying data, learning with noise transition has become an important approach for robust deep learning on corrupted labels. Prior methods attempt to achieve such transition…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-15 Jun Shu , Qian Zhao , Zongben Xu , Deyu Meng

Image segmentation is a challenging task influenced by multiple sources of uncertainty, such as the data labeling process or the sampling of training data. In this paper we focus on binary segmentation and address these challenges using…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Luca Mossina , Corentin Friedrich

Conformal prediction (CP) converts any model's output to prediction sets with a guarantee to cover the true label with (adjustable) high probability. Robust CP extends this guarantee to worst-case (adversarial) inputs. Existing baselines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-08 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates

Despite being robust to small amounts of label noise, convolutional neural networks trained with stochastic gradient methods have been shown to easily fit random labels. When there are a mixture of correct and mislabelled targets, networks…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-06-06 Eric Arazo , Diego Ortego , Paul Albert , Noel E. O'Connor , Kevin McGuinness

Large language models (LLMs) are prone to generating factually incorrect outputs. Recent work has applied conformal prediction to provide uncertainty estimates and statistical guarantees for the factuality of LLM generations. However,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Aleksandr Rubashevskii , Dzianis Piatrashyn , Preslav Nakov , Maxim Panov

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Modern image classifiers are very accurate, but the predictions come without uncertainty estimates. Conformal predictors provide uncertainty estimates by computing a set of classes containing the correct class with a user-specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Fatih Furkan Yilmaz , Reinhard Heckel

A recently-proposed technique called self-adaptive training augments modern neural networks by allowing them to adjust training labels on the fly, to avoid overfitting to samples that may be mislabeled or otherwise non-representative. By…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Daniel Chiu , Franklyn Wang , Scott Duke Kominers

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have been shown to be susceptible to memorization or overfitting in the presence of noisily-labelled data. For the problem of robust learning under such noisy data, several algorithms have been proposed. A…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-06 Deep Patel , P. S. Sastry

Deep neural networks are highly susceptible to overfitting noisy labels, which leads to degraded performance. Existing methods address this issue by employing manually defined criteria, aiming to achieve optimal partitioning in each…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Wenzhen Zhang , Debo Cheng , Guangquan Lu , Bo Zhou , Jiaye Li , Shichao Zhang

Conformal prediction has emerged as a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed coverage assuming only the exchangeability assumption. However, this assumption is often violated in online…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-07 Jungbin Jun , Ilsang Ohn

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Nina Deliu , Brunero Liseo

Machine learning algorithms have grown in sophistication over the years and are increasingly deployed for real-life applications. However, when using machine learning techniques in practical settings, particularly in high-risk applications…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-06 Sukrita Singh , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Yang Li , Agni Orfanoudaki , Michael Berger

We propose a novel sample selection method for image classification in the presence of noisy labels. Existing methods typically consider small-loss samples as correctly labeled. However, some correctly labeled samples are inherently…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Weiran Pan , Wei Wei , Feida Zhu , Yong Deng

Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Yuanjie Shi , Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan

Conformal prediction has become increasingly popular for quantifying the uncertainty associated with machine learning models. Recent work in graph uncertainty quantification has built upon this approach for conformal graph prediction. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Pranav Maneriker , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Yuntian He , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Matrix completion aims to estimate missing entries in a data matrix, using the assumption of a low-complexity structure (e.g., low rank) so that imputation is possible. While many effective estimation algorithms exist in the literature,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Yu Gui , Rina Foygel Barber , Cong Ma
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