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The purpose of this article is to develop a general parametric estimation theory that allows the derivation of the limit distribution of estimators in non-regular models where the true parameter value may lie on the boundary of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Junichiro Yoshida , Nakahiro Yoshida

Taking a rigorous formal approach, we consider sequential decision problems involving observable variables, unobservable variables, and action variables. We can typically assume the property of extended stability, which allows…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 A. Philip Dawid , Panayiota Constantinou

This paper studies covariate adjusted estimation of the average treatment effect in stratified experiments. We work in a general framework that includes matched tuples designs, coarse stratification, and complete randomization as special…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-23 Max Cytrynbaum

We argue that randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are special even among settings where average treatment effects are identified by a nonparametric unconfoundedness assumption. This claim follows from two results of Robins and Ritov (1997):…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-28 P. M. Aronow , James M. Robins , Theo Saarinen , Fredrik Sävje , Jasjeet Sekhon

We address causal estimation in semi-competing risks settings, where a non-terminal event may be precluded by one or more terminal events. We define a principal-stratification causal estimand for treatment effects on the non-terminal event,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 Karina Gelis-Cadena , Michael Daniels , Juned Siddique

We propose a likelihood ratio based inferential framework for high dimensional semiparametric generalized linear models. This framework addresses a variety of challenging problems in high dimensional data analysis, including incomplete…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-24 Yang Ning , Tianqi Zhao , Han Liu

This paper proposes a new semi-parametric identification and estimation approach to multinomial choice models in a panel data setting with individual fixed effects. Our approach is based on cyclic monotonicity, which is a defining feature…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-22 Xiaoxia Shi , Matthew Shum , Wei Song

In cohort studies, non-random medication use can pose barriers to estimation of the natural history trend in a mean biomarker value (namely, the association between a predictor of interest and a biomarker outcome that would be observed in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-25 Andrew J. Spieker , Joseph A. C. Delaney , Robyn L. McClelland

In the context of individual-level causal inference, we study the problem of predicting whether someone will respond or not to a treatment based on their features and past examples of features, treatment indicator (e.g., drug/no drug), and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-04 Nathan Kallus

The use of principal component methods to analyze functional data is appropriate in a wide range of different settings. In studies of ``functional data analysis,'' it has often been assumed that a sample of random functions is observed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Peter Hall , Hans-Georg Müller , Jane-Ling Wang

Clustered observations are ubiquitous in controlled and observational studies and arise naturally in multi-centre trials or longitudinal surveys. We present a novel model for the analysis of clustered observations where the marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-03 Luisa Barbanti , Torsten Hothorn

Local variable selection aims to test for the effect of covariates on an outcome within specific regions. We outline a challenge that arises in the presence of non-linear effects and model misspecification. Specifically, for common…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-02 David Rossell , Arnold Kisuk Kseung , Ignacio Saez , Michele Guindani

Sensitivity analysis informs causal inference by assessing the sensitivity of conclusions to departures from assumptions. The consistency assumption states that there are no hidden versions of treatment and that the outcome arising…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 Brian Knaeble , Qinyun Lin , Erich Kummerfeld , Kenneth A. Frank

We study semiparametric factor models in high-dimensional panels where the factor loadings consist of a nonparametric component explained by observed covariates and an idiosyncratic component capturing unobserved heterogeneity. A key…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-09 Sijie Zheng

Motivated by an observational study of the effect of hospital ward versus intensive care unit admission on severe sepsis mortality, we develop methods to address two common problems in observational studies: (1) when there is a lack of…

Applications · Statistics 2015-08-13 Colin B. Fogarty , Mark E. Mikkelsen , David F. Gaieski , Dylan S. Small

Causal graphs may inform covariate adjustment for estimating causal effects and improve estimation efficiency by exploiting the graphical structure. In many applications, however, the target causal parameter may not be point-identified due…

Online user-generated content platforms allocate billions of dollars of promotional traffic through algorithms in two-sided marketplaces. To evaluate updates to these algorithms, platforms frequently rely on creator-side randomized…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-10 Ruohan Zhan , Shichao Han , Yuchen Hu , Zhenling Jiang

In neoadjuvant trials on early-stage breast cancer, patients are usually randomized into a control group and a treatment group with an additional target therapy. Early efficacy of the new regimen is assessed via the binary pathological…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-04 Xiaoqing Tan , Judah Abberbock , Priya Rastogi , Gong Tang

Marginal structural models are a popular method for estimating causal effects in the presence of time-varying exposures. In spite of their popularity, no scalable non-parametric estimator exist for marginal structural models with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Axel Martin , Michele Santacatterina , Iván Díaz

Conformal prediction has received tremendous attention in recent years and has offered new solutions to problems in missing data and causal inference; yet these advances have not leveraged modern semiparametric efficiency theory for more…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-14 Yachong Yang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen