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We consider estimating the marginal likelihood in settings with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. We propose estimating the predictive distributions in a sequential factorization of the marginal likelihood in such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-19 Scott A. Cameron , Hans C. Eggers , Steve Kroon

Gradient estimation -- approximating the gradient of an expectation with respect to the parameters of a distribution -- is central to the solution of many machine learning problems. However, when the distribution is discrete, most common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-16 Jiaxin Shi , Yuhao Zhou , Jessica Hwang , Michalis K. Titsias , Lester Mackey

Despite the wide use of machine learning in adversarial settings including computer security, recent studies have demonstrated vulnerabilities to evasion attacks---carefully crafted adversarial samples that closely resemble legitimate…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2017-05-26 Yi Han , Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein

Self-paced learning and hard example mining re-weight training instances to improve learning accuracy. This paper presents two improved alternatives based on lightweight estimates of sample uncertainty in stochastic gradient descent (SGD):…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-09 Haw-Shiuan Chang , Erik Learned-Miller , Andrew McCallum

Encoding frequency stability constraints in the operation problem is challenging due to its complex dynamics. Recently, data-driven approaches have been proposed to learn the stability criteria offline with the trained model embedded as a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-23 Wangkun Xu , Qian Chen , Pudong Ge , Zhongda Chu , Fei Teng

Importance Sampling (IS) is a widely used variance reduction technique for enhancing the efficiency of Monte Carlo methods, particularly in rare-event simulation and related applications. Despite its effectiveness, the performance of IS is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Liviu Aolaritei , Bart P. G. Van Parys , Henry Lam , Michael I. Jordan

Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) is a highly efficient method to sample from an unnormalized probability distribution. However, the SVGD update relies on gradients of the log-density, which may not always be available. Existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Cornelius V. Braun , Robert T. Lange , Marc Toussaint

Chance constrained programming (CCP) is a powerful framework for addressing optimization problems under uncertainty. In this paper, we introduce a novel Gradient-Guided Diffusion-based Optimization framework, termed GGDOpt, which tackles…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-15 Boyang Zhang , Zhiguo Wang , Ya-Feng Liu

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte , Marcus Weber , Wei Zhang

The motivation for this paper stems from the desire to develop an adaptive sampling method for solving constrained optimization problems in which the objective function is stochastic and the constraints are deterministic. The method…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Yuchen Xie , Raghu Bollapragada , Richard Byrd , Jorge Nocedal

Anomaly detection is referred to as a process in which the aim is to detect data points that follow a different pattern from the majority of data points. Anomaly detection methods suffer from several well-known challenges that hinder their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Kasra Babaei , Zhi Yuan Chen , Tomas Maul

We introduce Path-ZVA: an efficient simulation technique for estimating the probability of reaching a rare goal state before a regeneration state in a (discrete-time) Markov chain. Standard Monte Carlo simulation techniques do not work well…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-07-02 Daniel Reijsbergen , Pieter-Tjerk de Boer , Werner Scheinhardt , Sandeep Juneja

Recent work has suggested using Monte Carlo methods based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) to sample from target distributions of interest. PDMPs are non-reversible continuous-time processes endowed with momentum, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-28 Paul Fearnhead , Sebastiano Grazzi , Chris Nemeth , Gareth O. Roberts

This paper investigates the use of retrospective approximation solution paradigm in solving risk-averse optimization problems effectively via importance sampling (IS). While IS serves as a prominent means for tackling the large sample…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-28 Anand Deo , Karthyek Murthy , Tirtho Sarker

We propose an unconstrained stochastic approximation method of finding the optimal measure change (in an a priori parametric family) for Monte Carlo simulations. We consider different parametric families based on the Girsanov theorem and…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-20 Vincent Lemaire , Gilles Pagès

Existing variance reduction techniques used in stochastic simulations for rare event analysis still require a substantial number of model evaluations to estimate small failure probabilities. In the context of complex, nonlinear finite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Liuyun Xu , Seymour M. J. Spence

We propose an efficient novel path sampling-based framework designed to accelerate the investigation of rare events in complex molecular systems. A key innovation is the shift from sampling restricted path ensemble distributions, as in…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-03-28 Gianmarco Lazzeri , Peter G. Bolhuis , Roberto Covino

We consider the problem of sampling from a target distribution, which is \emph {not necessarily logconcave}, in the context of empirical risk minimization and stochastic optimization as presented in Raginsky et al. (2017). Non-asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-03 Ngoc Huy Chau , Éric Moulines , Miklos Rásonyi , Sotirios Sabanis , Ying Zhang

Projected Gradient Descent (PGD) is a strong and widely used first-order adversarial attack, yet its computational cost scales poorly, as all training samples undergo identical iterative inner-loop optimization despite contributing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-29 Youran Ye , Dejin Wang , Ajinkya Bhandare

This work explores a novel approach for adaptive, differentiable parametrization of large-scale non-stationary random fields. Coupled with any gradient-based algorithm, the method can be applied to variety of optimization problems,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-03-19 Andrei Mukhin , Aleksey Khlyupin
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