Related papers: The time-dependent reproduction number for epidemi…
Due to its ability to summarise 'real-time' epidemic behaviour, the time-dependent reproduction number, Rt, is a useful metric for tracking pathogen transmission and quantifying the effects of interventions during infectious disease…
During infectious disease outbreaks, estimates of time-varying pathogen transmissibility, such as the instantaneous reproduction number R(t) or epidemic growth rate r(t), are used to inform decision-making by public health authorities. For…
In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…
The effective reproduction number, R(t), is a central point in the study of infectious diseases. It establishes in an explicit way the extent of an epidemic spread process in a population. The current estimation methods for the time…
The time-varying reproduction number $R(t)$ measures the number of new infections per infectious individual and is closely correlated with the time series of infection incidence by definition. The timings of actual infections are rarely…
During an infectious disease outbreak, public health decision-makers require real-time monitoring of disease transmission to respond quickly and intelligently. In these settings, a key measure of transmission is the instantaneous…
The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that…
The basic reproduction number R0 -- the number of individuals directly infected by an infectious person in an otherwise susceptible population -- is arguably the most widely used estimator of how severe an epidemic outbreak can be. This…
A great issue of discussion of an infectious disease is its basic reproduction number R0, which provides an estimation of the contagiousness of the disease. When R0 > 1, the disease spread will potentially lead to an outbreak, such that of…
When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information that one can obtain during early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a…
In randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of infectious disease interventions, it is well recognized that unmeasured individual heterogeneity at baseline can induce selection bias over time, thereby complicating the interpretation of the…
In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive…
The time-varying reproduction number ($R_t$) gives an indication of the trajectory of an infectious disease outbreak. Commonly used frameworks for inferring $R_t$ from epidemiological time series include those based on compartmental models…
We consider the problem of estimating the reproduction number $R_t$ of an epidemic for populations where the probability of detection of cases depends on a known covariate. We argue that in such cases the normal empirical estimator can fail…
The expected number of secondary infections arising from each index case, referred to as the reproduction or $R$ number, is a vital summary statistic for understanding and managing epidemic diseases. There are many methods for estimating…
The basic and effective reproduction numbers are widely used metrics for characterizing the dynamics of infectious disease epidemics. However, the interpretation of these numbers is based on the assumption of homogeneous mixing and may not…
In most models of the spread of disease over contact networks it is assumed that the probabilities per unit time of disease transmission and recovery from disease are constant, implying exponential distributions of the time intervals for…
A social (sexual) network is modeled by an extension of the configuration model to the situation where edges have weights, e.g. reflecting the number of sex-contacts between the individuals. An epidemic model is defined on the network such…
At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented in order to reduce transmission, thus leading to multiple phases of transmission. The disease reproduction number $R_t$, a way of…
We study a class of individual-based, fixed-population size epidemic models under general assumptions, e.g., heterogeneous contact rates encapsulating changes in behavior and/or enforcement of control measures. We show that the…