Related papers: Probing LLM World Models: Enhancing Guesstimation …

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated their potential in social science research by emulating human perceptions and behaviors, a concept referred to as algorithmic fidelity. This study assesses the algorithmic fidelity and bias of…

Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting…

In this study, we build on previous research to understand the conditions within which the Wisdom of the Crowd (WoC) improves or worsens as a result of showing individuals the predictions of their peers. Our main novel contributions are: 1)…

Large language models (LLMs) are often equipped with multi-sample decoding strategies. An LLM implicitly defines an arithmetic code book, facilitating efficient and embarrassingly parallelizable \textbf{arithmetic sampling} to produce…

Large Language Models (LLMs) possess general world knowledge but often struggle to generate precise predictions in structured, domain-specific contexts such as simulations. These limitations arise from their inability to ground their broad,…

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a promising alternative to traditional survey methods, potentially enhancing efficiency and reducing costs. In this study, we use LLMs to create virtual populations that answer survey questions, enabling…

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong average performance yet remain unreliable at the instance level, with frequent hallucinations, brittle failures, and poorly calibrated confidence. We study reliability through the lens of…

Despite the widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) for recommendation, we demonstrate that LLMs often exhibit uncertainty in their recommendations. To ensure the trustworthy use of LLMs in generating recommendations, we…

Uncertainty decomposition refers to the task of decomposing the total uncertainty of a predictive model into aleatoric (data) uncertainty, resulting from inherent randomness in the data-generating process, and epistemic (model) uncertainty,…

Decoding strategies manipulate the probability distribution underlying the output of a language model and can therefore affect both generation quality and its uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the impact of decoding strategies on…

Although most people support climate action, widespread underestimation of others' support stalls individual and systemic changes. In this preregistered experiment, we test whether large language models (LLMs) can reliably predict these…

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have attracted attention due to their ability to generate human-like text. As surveys and opinion polls remain key tools for gauging public attitudes, there is increasing interest in assessing…

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential for reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Recent multi-modal OOD detection leverages textual information from in-distribution (ID) class names for visual OOD detection, yet it currently…

Speculative decoding is a pivotal technique to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs) by employing a smaller draft model to predict the target model's outputs. However, its efficacy can be limited due to the low predictive…

Commonsense reasoning deals with the implicit knowledge that is well understood by humans and typically acquired via interactions with the world. In recent times, commonsense reasoning and understanding of various LLMs have been evaluated…

Large language models (LLMs) acquire knowledge across diverse domains such as science, history, and geography encountered during generative pre-training. However, due to their stochasticity, it is difficult to predict what LLMs have…

Large language models are increasingly used to predict human preferences in both scientific and business endeavors, yet current approaches rely exclusively on analyzing model outputs without considering the underlying mechanisms. Using…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated a remarkable ability to capture extensive world knowledge, yet how this is achieved without direct sensorimotor experience remains a fundamental puzzle. This study proposes a novel theoretical…

Theory of Mind (ToM) is the ability to understand and reflect on the mental states of others. Although this capability is crucial for human interaction, testing on Large Language Models (LLMs) reveals that they possess only a rudimentary…

Future beyond-5G and 6G systems demand ultra-reliable, low-latency communication with short blocklengths, motivating the development of universal decoding algorithms. Guessing decoding, which infers the noise or codeword candidate in order…