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We provide a unifying interpretation of various optimal transport problems as a minimisation of a linear functional over the set of all Choquet representations of a given pair of probability measures ordered with respect to a certain convex…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2023-03-06 Krzysztof J. Ciosmak

Data-driven optimization uses contextual information and machine learning algorithms to find solutions to decision problems with uncertain parameters. While a vast body of work is dedicated to interpreting machine learning models in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-21 Alexandre Forel , Axel Parmentier , Thibaut Vidal

We introduce an approach to counterfactual inference based on merging information from multiple datasets. We consider a causal reformulation of the statistical marginal problem: given a collection of marginal structural causal models (SCMs)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-18 Luigi Gresele , Julius von Kügelgen , Jonas M. Kübler , Elke Kirschbaum , Bernhard Schölkopf , Dominik Janzing

A new data-enabled control technique for uncertain linear time-invariant systems, recently conceived by Coulson et\ al., builds upon the direct optimization of controllers over input/output pairs drawn from a large dataset. We adopt an…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-09-29 Filippo Fabiani , Paul J. Goulart

We formulate a new information-theoretic principle--the shifted composition rule--which bounds the divergence (e.g., Kullback-Leibler or R\'enyi) between the laws of two stochastic processes via the introduction of auxiliary shifts. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-27 Jason M. Altschuler , Sinho Chewi

Accurate estimation of counterfactual outcomes in high-dimensional data is crucial for decision-making and understanding causal relationships and intervention outcomes in various domains, including healthcare, economics, and social…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Jiageng Zhu , Hanchen Xie , Jiazhi Li , Wael Abd-Almageed

Counterfactual Explanations are becoming a de-facto standard in post-hoc interpretable machine learning. For a given classifier and an instance classified in an undesired class, its counterfactual explanation corresponds to small…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Veronica Piccialli , Dolores Romero Morales , Cecilia Salvatore

Counterfactual fairness alleviates the discrimination between the model prediction toward an individual in the actual world (observational data) and that in counterfactual world (i.e., what if the individual belongs to other sensitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

In this work, we investigate an optimization problem over adapted couplings between pairs of real valued random variables, possibly describing random times. We relate those couplings to a specific class of causal transport plans between…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-18 Rémi Lassalle

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , David Huber , Rafael Cabañas

Due to the increasing use of Machine Learning models in high stakes decision making settings, it has become increasingly important to have tools to understand how models arrive at decisions. Assuming a trained Supervised Classification…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-20 Emilio Carrizosa , Jasone Ramírez-Ayerbe , Dolores Romero Morales

Estimating joint distributions (a.k.a. couplings) over counterfactual outcomes is central to personalized decision-making and treatment risk assessment. Two emergent frameworks with identifiability guarantees are: (i) bijective structural…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-26 Hugh Dance , Benjamin Bloem-Reddy

Machine learning models have shown exceptional prowess in solving complex issues across various domains. However, these models can sometimes exhibit biased decision-making, resulting in unequal treatment of different groups. Despite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Shuyi Chen , Shixiang Zhu

A data driven procedure is developed to compute the optimal map between two conditional probabilities $\rho(x|z_{1},...,z_{L})$ and $\mu(y|z_{1},...,z_{L})$ depending on a set of covariates $z_{i}$. The procedure is tested on synthetic data…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-28 Esteban G. Tabak , Giulio Trigila , Wenjun Zhao

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Gauthier Thurin , Kimia Nadjahi , Claire Boyer

We propose a unified data-driven framework based on inverse optimal transport that can learn adaptive, nonlinear interaction cost function from noisy and incomplete empirical matching matrix and predict new matching in various matching…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-01 Ruilin Li , Xiaojing Ye , Haomin Zhou , Hongyuan Zha

Optimal transport has become part of the standard quantitative economics toolbox. It is the framework of choice to describe models of matching with transfers, but beyond that, it allows to: extend quantile regression; identify discrete…

General Economics · Economics 2021-07-13 Alfred Galichon

In causal inference, the joint law of a set of counterfactual random variables is generally not identified. We show that a conservative version of the joint law - corresponding to the smallest treatment effect - is identified. Finding this…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-20 Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Edward Kennedy , Larry Wasserman

Imbalance in covariate distributions leads to biased estimates of causal effects. Weighting methods attempt to correct this imbalance but rely on specifying models for the treatment assignment mechanism, which is unknown in observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-13 Eric Dunipace

We propose a method to identify and characterize distribution shifts in classification datasets based on optimal transport. It allows the user to identify the extent to which each class is affected by the shift, and retrieves corresponding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-08 Neha Hulkund , Nicolo Fusi , Jennifer Wortman Vaughan , David Alvarez-Melis