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The negative binomial distribution has been widely used as a more flexible model than the Poisson distribution for count data. However, when the true data-generating process is Poisson, it is often challenging to distinguish it from a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Yingying Yang , Niloufar Dousti Mousavi , Zhou Yu , Jie Yang

Model combination is a powerful approach for achieving superior performance compared to selecting a single model. We study both theoretically and empirically the effectiveness of ensembles of Multi-Frequency Echo State Networks (MFESNs),…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Giovanni Ballarin , Lyudmila Grigoryeva , Yui Ching Li

We develop a new class of dynamic multivariate Poisson count models that allow for fast online updating and we refer to these models as multivariate Poisson-scaled beta (MPSB). The MPSB model allows for serial dependence in the counts as…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-16 Tevfik Aktekin , Nicholas G. Polson , Refik Soyer

In a variety of application areas, there is a growing interest in analyzing high dimensional sparse count data, with sparsity exhibited by an over-abundance of zeros and small non-zero counts. Existing approaches for analyzing multivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-15 Jyotishka Datta , David B. Dunson

The Poisson distribution is the default choice of likelihood for probabilistic models of count data. However, due to the equidispersion contraint of the Poisson, such models may have predictive uncertainty that is artificially inflated.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-15 Jimmy Lederman , Aaron Schein

The original generalized network autoregressive models are poor for modelling count data as they are based on the additive and constant noise assumptions, which is usually inappropriate for count data. We introduce two new models (GNARI and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-12 Hengxu Liu , Guy Nason

We consider network autoregressive models for count data with a non-random neighborhood structure. The main methodological contribution is the development of conditions that guarantee stability and valid statistical inference for such…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-20 Mirko Armillotta , Konstantinos Fokianos

We develop an efficient posterior sampling scheme for the Poisson INGARCH models. The proposed method is based on the approximation of the posterior density that exploits the Poisson limit of the negative binomial distribution. It allows us…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Yixuan Fan , Zhengwei Liu , Fukang Zhu

We propose a model for hierarchical structured data as an extension to the stochastic temporal convolutional network. The proposed model combines an autoregressive model with a hierarchical variational autoencoder and downsampling to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-02 Carl R. Andersson , Niklas Wahlström , Thomas B. Schön

Empirical networks are often globally sparse, with a small average number of connections per node, when compared to the total size of the network. However, this sparsity tends not to be homogeneous, and networks can also be locally dense,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-20 Tiago P. Peixoto

This paper presents a framework for binary autoregressive time series in which each observation is a Bernoulli variable whose success probability evolves with past outcomes and probabilities, in the spirit of GARCH-type dynamics,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-17 Anna Bykhovskaya , Nour Meddahi

An approach to the time-accurate prediction of chaotic solutions is by learning temporal patterns from data. Echo State Networks (ESNs), which are a class of Reservoir Computing, can accurately predict the chaotic dynamics well beyond the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Alberto Racca , Luca Magri

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have demonstrated their outstanding ability in sequence tasks and have achieved state-of-the-art in wide range of applications, such as industrial, medical, economic and linguistic. Echo State Network (ESN)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-08 Chenxi Sun , Moxian Song , Shenda Hong , Hongyan Li

Count data take on non-negative integer values and are challenging to properly analyze using standard linear-Gaussian methods such as linear regression and principal components analysis. Generalized linear models enable direct modeling of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-14 F. William Townes

Among the various architectures of Recurrent Neural Networks, Echo State Networks (ESNs) emerged due to their simplified and inexpensive training procedure. These networks are known to be sensitive to the setting of hyper-parameters, which…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2019-09-23 Pietro Verzelli , Cesare Alippi , Lorenzo Livi

Multiplicative noise models are often used instead of additive noise models in cases in which the noise variance depends on the state. Furthermore, when Poisson distributions with relatively small counts are approximated with normal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-06-08 Ruanui Nicholson , Jari P. Kaipio

A growing number of college applications has presented an annual challenge for college admissions in the United States. Admission offices have historically relied on standardized test scores to organize large applicant pools into viable…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Hansol Lee , René F. Kizilcec , Thorsten Joachims

Bayesian network modelling is a well adapted approach to study messy and highly correlated datasets which are very common in, e.g., systems epidemiology. A popular approach to learn a Bayesian network from an observational datasets is to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-06 Gilles Kratzer , Reinhard Furrer

It is generally known that counting statistics is not correctly described by a Gaussian approximation. Nevertheless, in neutron scattering, it is common practice to apply this approximation to the counting statistics; also at low counting…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-06-09 Jakob Lassa , Magnus Egede Bøggild , Per Hedegård , Kim Lefmann

The appropriateness of the Poisson model is frequently challenged when examining spatial count data marked by unbalanced distributions, over-dispersion, or under-dispersion. Moreover, traditional parametric models may inadequately capture…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-26 Mahsa Nadifar , Andriette Bekker , Mohammad Arashi , Abel Ramoelo