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Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular uncertainty quantification method that provides distribution-free, statistically valid prediction sets, assuming that training and test data are exchangeable. In such a case, CP's prediction sets are…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Linus Jeary , Tom Kuipers , Mehran Hosseini , Nicola Paoletti

The rapid growth of AI applications is dramatically increasing data center energy demand, exacerbating carbon emissions, and necessitating a shift towards 24/7 carbon-free energy (CFE). Unlike traditional annual energy matching, 24/7 CFE…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-07 Yijie Yang , Jian Shi , Dan Wang , Chenye Wu , Zhu Han

In decentralized learning networks, predictions from many participants are combined to generate a network inference. While many studies have demonstrated performance benefits of combining multiple model predictions, existing strategies…

We propose a real-time context-aware learning system along with the architecture that runs on the mobile devices, provide services to the user and manage the IoT devices. In this system, an application running on mobile devices collected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-29 Bhaskar Das , Jalal Almhana

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g.,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Han Wang , Chao Ning

Accurate uncertainty quantification is crucial for the safe deployment of machine learning models, and prior research has demonstrated improvements in the calibration of modern language models (LMs). We study in-context learning (ICL), a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-29 Hanlin Zhang , Yi-Fan Zhang , Yaodong Yu , Dhruv Madeka , Dean Foster , Eric Xing , Himabindu Lakkaraju , Sham Kakade

Uncertainty quantification has received considerable interest in recent works in Machine Learning. In particular, Conformal Prediction (CP) gains ground in this field. For the case of time series, Online Conformal Prediction (OCP) becomes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-03 Théo Dupuy , Binbin Xu , Stéphane Perrey , Jacky Montmain , Abdelhak Imoussaten

This paper presents a unified framework for understanding the methodology and theory behind several different methods in the conformal prediction literature, which includes standard conformal prediction (CP), weighted conformal prediction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Rina Foygel Barber , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) offer a versatile framework for constructing predictive distributions, allowing for calibrated inference and informative decision-making. However, their applicability has been limited to scenarios adhering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Jef Jonkers , Glenn Van Wallendael , Luc Duchateau , Sofie Van Hoecke

With a strong alignment between the training and test distributions, object relation as a context prior facilitates object detection. Yet, it turns into a harmful but inevitable training set bias upon test distributions that shift…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-28 Mo Zhou , Yiding Yang , Haoxiang Li , Vishal M. Patel , Gang Hua

Recent advances in uncertainty quantification for time series forecasting show that conformal prediction can provide reliable prediction intervals, yet standard conformal methods are often inefficient under temporal dependence, drift, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Manuel Heurich , Maximilian Granz , Tim Landgraf

Large language models have achieved impressive performance across diverse tasks. However, their tendency to produce overconfident and factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, poses risks in real world applications. Conformal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-08 Zhexiao Lin , Yuanyuan Li , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Gao , Michael von Gablenz

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

Predictive models are often required to produce reliable predictions under statistical conditions that are not matched to the training data. A common type of training-testing mismatch is covariate shift, where the conditional distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Matteo Zecchin , Fredrik Hellström , Sangwoo Park , Shlomo Shamai , Osvaldo Simeone

The rapid growth of renewable energy penetration has intensified the need for reliable probabilistic forecasts to support grid operations at aggregated (fleet or system) levels. In practice, however, system operators often lack access to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Alireza Moradi , Mathieu Tanneau , Reza Zandehshahvar , Pascal Van Hentenryck

This study aims to address the pervasive challenge of quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) without logit-access. Conformal Prediction (CP), known for its model-agnostic and distribution-free features, is a desired…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-05 Jiayuan Su , Jing Luo , Hongwei Wang , Lu Cheng

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Gauthier Thurin , Kimia Nadjahi , Claire Boyer

Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, offering reliable predictions with finite-sample coverage guarantees. When applied to classification, CP produces a prediction set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Floris den Hengst , Inès Blin , Majid Mohammadi , Syed Ihtesham Hussain Shah , Taraneh Younesian

The increasing complexity of modern applications demands wireless networks capable of real time adaptability and efficient resource management. The Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN) architecture, with its RAN Intelligent Controller (RIC)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Fatemeh Lotfi , Fatemeh Afghah