Related papers: A Probabilistic WxChallenge Proposal
The Winograd Schema Challenge (WSC), a seemingly well-thought-out test for machine intelligence, has been proposed to shed light on developing systems that exhibit human behavior. Since its introduction, it aimed to pivot the focus of the…
In an attempt to provide an answer to the increasing criticism against p-values and to bridge the gap between statistical inference and prediction modelling, we introduce the probability of improved prediction (PIP). In general, the PIP is…
WeatherBench is a benchmark dataset for medium-range weather forecasting of geopotential, temperature and precipitation, consisting of preprocessed data, predefined evaluation metrics and a number of baseline models. WeatherBench…
We investigate the performance and sampling variability of estimated forecast combinations, with particular attention given to the combination of forecast distributions. Unknown parameters in the forecast combination are optimized according…
Baseball is a game of strategic decisions including bullpen usage, pinch-hitting and intentional walks. Managers must adjust their strategies based on the changing state of the game in order to give their team the best chance of winning. In…
Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple forecast systems…
We present an extensive statistical analysis of the results of all sports competitions in five major sports leagues in England and the United States. We characterize the parity among teams by the variance in the winning fraction from…
Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series…
In the last few decades, the size of spatial and spatio-temporal datasets in many research areas has rapidly increased with the development of data collection technologies. As a result, classical statistical methods in spatial statistics…
The following zero-sum game between nature and a statistician blends Bayesian methods with frequentist methods such as p-values and confidence intervals. Nature chooses a posterior distribution consistent with a set of possible priors. At…
We present a scheme by which a probabilistic forecasting system whose predictions have poor probabilistic calibration may be recalibrated by incorporating past performance information to produce a new forecasting system that is demonstrably…
Maddox, et al. (2022) establish a new win probability estimation for college basketball and compared the results with previous methods of Stern (1994), Desphande and Jensen (2016) and Benz (2019). This paper proposes modifications to the…
Conventional noncooperative game theory hypothesizes that the joint strategy of a set of players in a game must satisfy an "equilibrium concept". All other joint strategies are considered impossible; the only issue is what equilibrium…
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields of statistical science. The dissimilarity between a probability forecast and an outcome is measured by a loss function…
Standard stochastic control methods assume that the probability distribution of uncertain variables is available. Unfortunately, in practice, obtaining accurate distribution information is a challenging task. To resolve this issue, we…
Real-world data streams can change unpredictably due to distribution shifts, feedback loops and adversarial actors, which challenges the validity of forecasts. We present a forecasting framework ensuring valid uncertainty estimates…
Many high-stakes AI deployments proceed only if every stakeholder deems the system acceptable relative to their own minimum standard. With randomization over a finite menu of options, this becomes a feasibility question: does there exist a…
In imperfect information games (e.g. Bridge, Skat, Poker), one of the fundamental considerations is to infer the missing information while at the same time avoiding the disclosure of private information. Disregarding the issue of protecting…
The Triple Scoring Task at the WSDM Cup 2017 involves the prediction of the relevance scores between persons and professions/nationalities. The ground truth of the relevance scores was obtained by counting the vote of seven crowdworkers. I…
The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of…