Related papers: Wasserstein-regularized Conformal Prediction under…
Despite attractive theoretical guarantees and practical successes, Predictive Interval (PI) given by Conformal Prediction (CP) may not reflect the uncertainty of a given model. This limitation arises from CP methods using a constant…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…
While Conformal Prediction (CP) has proven to be a powerful framework for uncertainty quantification, guaranteeing conditional coverage remains a central challenge. Although finite-sample, distribution-free conditional validity is known to…
Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…
This work discusses how to derive upper bounds for the expected generalisation error of supervised learning algorithms by means of the chaining technique. By developing a general theoretical framework, we establish a duality between…
Under mild assumptions, we show the exact convergence rate in total variation is also exact in weaker Wasserstein distances for the Metropolis-Hastings independence sampler. We develop a new upper and lower bound on the worst-case…
Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization offers a framework for model fitting in machine learning under potential shifts in the data distribution. We study a regularized variant of this problem in which entropic smoothing produces a…
Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification that converts a pretrained model's point prediction into a prediction set, with the set size reflecting the model's confidence. Although existing CP methods are…
We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in…
We introduce $\textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and…
Based on the framework of Conformal Prediction (CP), we study the online construction of confidence sets given a black-box machine learning model. By converting the target confidence levels into quantile levels, the problem can be reduced…
Conformal prediction (CP) is widely presented as distribution-free predictive inference with finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability. We argue that CP is best understood as a rank-calibrated descendant of the…
We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…
We study a general framework of distributional computational graphs: computational graphs whose inputs are probability distributions rather than point values. We analyze the discretization error that arises when these graphs are evaluated…
The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is being increasingly used in machine learning applications as an alternative to the Wasserstein distance and offers significant computational and statistical benefits. Since it is defined as an…
The central limit theorem (CLT) is one of the most fundamental results in probability; and establishing its rate of convergence has been a key question since the 1940s. For independent random variables, a series of recent works established…
We extend the celebrated Stone's theorem to the framework of distributional regression. More precisely, we prove that weighted empirical distribution with local probability weights satisfying the conditions of Stone's theorem provide…
Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…
We introduce the Wasserstein Transform (WT), a general unsupervised framework for updating distance structures on given data sets with the purpose of enhancing features and denoising. Our framework represents each data point by a…