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Many public health interventions are conducted in settings where individuals are connected to one another and the intervention assigned to randomly selected individuals may spill over to other individuals they are connected to. In these…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Junhan Fang , Donna Spiegelman , Ashley Buchanan , Laura Forastiere

There has been widespread use of causal inference methods for the rigorous analysis of observational studies and to identify policy evaluations. In this article, we consider a class of generalized coarsened procedures for confounding. At a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-04 Debashis Ghosh , Lei Wang

In many application domains, it is important to characterize how complex learned models make their decisions across the distribution of instances. One way to do this is to identify the features and interactions among them that contribute to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-22 Kyubin Lee , Akshay Sood , Mark Craven

There is increasing interest in combining information from experimental studies, including randomized and single-group trials, with information from external experimental or observational data sources. Such efforts are usually motivated by…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-23 Lawson Ung , Guanbo Wang , Sebastien Haneuse , Miguel A. Hernán , Issa J. Dahabreh

The increasing impact of algorithmic decisions on people's lives compels us to scrutinize their fairness and, in particular, the disparate impacts that ostensibly-color-blind algorithms can have on different groups. Examples include credit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-17 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Angela Zhou

Strategic classification studies learning in settings where self-interested users can strategically modify their features to obtain favorable predictive outcomes. A key working assumption, however, is that "favorable" always means…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Sagi Levanon , Nir Rosenfeld

Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Luke Guerdan , Amanda Coston , Kenneth Holstein , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Estimating, understanding, and communicating uncertainty is fundamental to statistical epidemiology, where model-based estimates regularly inform real-world decisions. However, sources of uncertainty are rarely formalised, and existing…

Assessing the systemic effects of uncertainty that arises from agents' partial observation of the true states of the world is critical for understanding a wide range of scenarios. Yet, previous modeling work on agent learning and…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2022-04-15 Wolfram Barfuss , Richard P. Mann

Explicit and implicit bias clouds human judgement, leading to discriminatory treatment of minority groups. A fundamental goal of algorithmic fairness is to avoid the pitfalls in human judgement by learning policies that improve the overall…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-02 Yuzi He , Keith Burghardt , Siyi Guo , Kristina Lerman

This paper concerns robust inference on average treatment effects following model selection. In the selection on observables framework, we show how to construct confidence intervals based on a doubly-robust estimator that are robust to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-13 Max H. Farrell

The generalizability of empirical findings to new environments, settings or populations, often called "external validity," is essential in most scientific explorations. This paper treats a particular problem of generalizability, called…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-06 Judea Pearl , Elias Bareinboim

Machine learning methods are being increasingly applied in sensitive societal contexts, where decisions impact human lives. Hence it has become necessary to build capabilities for providing easily-interpretable explanations of models'…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-13 Alfredo Carrillo , Luis F. Cantú , Luis Tejerina , Alejandro Noriega

We explore conclusions a person draws from observing society when he allows for the possibility that individuals' outcomes are affected by group-level discrimination. Injecting a single non-classical assumption, that the agent is…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2019-09-19 Paul Heidhues , Botond Kőszegi , Philipp Strack

This paper develops a framework for identifying treatment effects when a policy simultaneously alters both the incentive to participate and the outcome of interest -- such as hiring decisions and wages in response to employment subsidies;…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-01 Haotian Deng

In Environment Design, one interested party seeks to affect another agent's decisions by applying changes to the environment. Most research on planning environment (re)design assumes the interested party's objective is to facilitate the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-15 Alberto Pozanco , Ramon Fraga Pereira , Daniel Borrajo

A researcher allocates a budget of informative tests across multiple unknown attributes to influence a decision-maker. We derive the researcher's equilibrium learning strategy by solving an auxiliary single-player problem. The attribute…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-27 Jean-Michel Benkert , Ludmila Matyskova , Egor Starkov

This paper studies the problem of estimating individualized treatment rules when treatment effects are partially identified, as it is often the case with observational data. By drawing connections between the treatment assignment problem…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-01-02 Riccardo D'Adamo

Identifying heterogeneity in a population's response to a health or policy intervention is crucial for evaluating and informing policy decisions. We propose a novel heterogeneous treatment effect estimator in the difference-in-differences…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-24 Xinkun Nie , Chen Lu , Stefan Wager

In consequential domains, it is often impossible to compel individuals to take treatment, so that optimal policy rules are merely suggestions in the presence of human non-adherence to treatment recommendations. We study personalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Angela Zhou