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This paper discusses the dynamics of intraday prices of twelve cryptocurrencies during last months' boom and bust. The importance of this study lies on the extended coverage of the cryptoworld, accounting for more than 90\% of the total…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-08-07 Aurelio F. Bariviera , Luciano Zunino , Osvaldo A. Rosso

Over 900 million Bitcoin transactions have been recorded, posing considerable challenges for machine learning in terms of computation time and maintaining prediction accuracy. We propose an innovative approach using quantum-inspired…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-11-26 Ming-Fong Sie , Yen-Jui Chang , Chien-Lung Lin , Ching-Ray Chang , Shih-Wei Liao

Accurate exchange rate prediction is fundamental to financial stability and international trade, positioning it as a critical focus in economic and financial research. Traditional forecasting models often falter when addressing the inherent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Shuchen Meng , Andi Chen , Chihang Wang , Mengyao Zheng , Fangyu Wu , Xupeng Chen , Haowei Ni , Panfeng Li

This study explores the prediction of high-frequency price changes using deep learning models. Although state-of-the-art methods perform well, their complexity impedes the understanding of successful predictions. We found that an…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-24 Kyungsub Lee

Abrupt changes in the miner hash rate applied to a proof-of-work (PoW) blockchain can adversely affect user experience and security. Because different PoW blockchains often share hashing algorithms, miners face a complex choice in deciding…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2018-06-20 George Bissias , Brian N. Levine , David Thibodeau

This paper presents a novel machine learning approach to GDP prediction that incorporates volatility as a model weight. The proposed method is specifically designed to identify and select the most relevant macroeconomic variables for…

General Economics · Economics 2023-07-12 Ali Lashgari

In this paper, we analyze Twitter signals as a medium for user sentiment to predict the price fluctuations of a small-cap alternative cryptocurrency called \emph{ZClassic}. We extracted tweets on an hourly basis for a period of 3.5 weeks,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-05-04 Tianyu Ray Li , Anup S. Chamrajnagar , Xander R. Fong , Nicholas R. Rizik , Feng Fu

As the pioneer of blockchain technology, Bitcoin is the most popular cryptocurrency to date. Given its dramatic price spikes (and crashes) along with the never-ending news from SEC regulations to security breaches, there seems to be a lack…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-06-04 Anthony Luo , Dianxiang Xu

Initialization of neural network weights plays a pivotal role in determining their performance. Feature Imitating Networks (FINs) offer a novel strategy by initializing weights to approximate specific closed-form statistical features,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-22 Reza Khanmohammadi , Tuka Alhanai , Mohammad M. Ghassemi

Much significant research has been done to investigate various facets of the link between Bitcoin price and its fundamental sources. This study goes beyond by looking into least to most influential factors-across the fundamental,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-06 Jamal Bouoiyour , Refk Selmi

The bitcoin price has surged in recent years and it has also exhibited phases of rapid decay. In this paper we address the question to what extent this novel cryptocurrency market can be viewed as a classic or semi-efficient market. Novel…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-26 Josselin Garnier , Knut Solna

In this study, the novel hybrid machine learning approach is proposed in carbon price fluctuation prediction. Specifically, a research framework integrating DILATED Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 H. Wang , Y. Pang , D. Shang

Several studies have shown that deep learning models can provide more accurate volatility forecasts than the traditional methods used within this domain. This paper presents a composite model that merges a deep learning approach with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-18 V Ncume , T. L van Zyl , A Paskaramoorthy

The nature of available economic data has changed fundamentally in the last decade due to the economy's digitisation. With the prevalence of often black box data-driven machine learning methods, there is a necessity to develop interpretable…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-28 Pratha Khandelwal , Philip Nadler , Rossella Arcucci , William Knottenbelt , Yi-Ke Guo

Methodologies to infer financial networks from the price series of speculative assets vary, however, they generally involve bivariate or multivariate predictive modelling to reveal causal and correlational structures within the time series…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-08-31 Cameron Cornell , Lewis Mitchell , Matthew Roughan

Standard methods and theories in finance can be ill-equipped to capture highly non-linear interactions in financial prediction problems based on large-scale datasets, with deep learning offering a way to gain insights into correlations in…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-22 Ben Moews , Gbenga Ibikunle

This article aims to propose and apply a machine learning method to analyze the direction of returns from Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) using the historical return data of its components, helping to make investment strategy decisions through…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-14 Raphael P. B. Piovezan , Pedro Paulo de Andrade Junior

This is the first paper that estimates the price determinants of BitCoin in a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework using high frequency data. Derived from a theoretical model, we estimate BitCoin transaction…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-27 Pavel Ciaian , d'Artis Kancs , Miroslava Rajcaniova

Recent advancements in the fields of artificial intelligence and machine learning methods resulted in a significant increase of their popularity in the literature, including electricity price forecasting. Said methods cover a very broad…

Applications · Statistics 2020-08-19 Grzegorz Marcjasz , Jesus Lago , Rafał Weron

This paper proposes a classification model for predicting the main activity of bitcoin addresses based on their balances. Since the balances are functions of time, we apply methods from functional data analysis; more specifically, the…

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