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We study mixing of the Metropolis algorithm for a distribution on the hypercube that corresponds to the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph with edge probability p. This Markov chain has cutoff at max{p,1-p} n log n with window size n, a result…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-30 Winfried Barta

We present a theory for slicing probabilistic imperative programs -- containing random assignments, and ``observe'' statements (for conditioning) -- represented as probabilistic control-flow graphs (pCFGs) whose nodes modify probability…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2017-11-08 Torben Amtoft , Anindya Banerjee

In the context of nonparametric Bayesian estimation a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is devised and implemented to sample from the posterior distribution of the drift function of a continuously or discretely observed one-dimensional…

Computation · Statistics 2017-06-08 Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Harry van Zanten

We study Markov chains with non-negative sectional curvature on finite metric spaces. Neither reversibility, nor the restriction to a particular combinatorial distance are imposed. In this level of generality, we prove that a 1-step…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-12 Pietro Caputo , Florentin Münch , Justin Salez

In this paper, we are interested in the impact of communities on the mixing behavior of the non-backtracking random walk. We consider sequences of sparse random graphs of size $N$ generated according to a variant of the classical…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-03 Anna Ben-Hamou

We give computable bounds on the rate of convergence of the transition probabilities to the stationary distribution for a certain class of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. Our results are different from earlier estimates of Meyn and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Peter H. Baxendale

Markov chains are convenient means of generating realizations of networks with a given (joint or otherwise) degree distribution, since they simply require a procedure for rewiring edges. The major challenge is to find the right number of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2012-11-01 J. Ray , A. Pinar , C. Seshadhri

In this paper, we show that the Ricci curvature lower bound in Ollivier's Wasserstein metric sense of a continuous time jumping Markov process on a graph can be characterized by some optimal coupling generator and provide the construction…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-26 Lingyan Cheng , Ruinan Li , Liming Wu

We derive an invariance principle for the lift to the rough path topology of stochastic processes with delayed regenerative increments under an optimal moment condition. An interesting feature of the result is the emergence of area anomaly,…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-14 Tal Orenshtein

We prove an invariance principle for non-stationary random processes and establish a rate of convergence under a new type of mixing condition. The dependence is exponentially decaying in the gap between the past and the future and is…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-23 Ion Grama , Émile Le Page , Marc Peigné

A discrete-time Markov chain can be transformed into a new Markov chain by looking at its states along iterations of an almost surely finite stopping time. By the optional stopping theorem, any bounded harmonic function with respect to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-04 Iddo Ben-Ari , Behrang Forghani

In classical probability theory, the term "cutoff" describes the property of some Markov chains to jump from (close to) their initial configuration to (close to) completely mixed in a very narrow window of time. We investigate how coherent…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-10-14 Eric Vernier

We establish a new Bernstein-type deviation inequality for general (non-reversible) discrete-time Markov chains via an elementary approach. More robust than existing works in the literature, our result only requires the Markov chain to…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-07 De Huang , Xiangyuan Li

This paper establishes that an exactly optimal rule for Bayesian Quickest Change Detection (QCD) of Markov chains is a threshold test on the no change posterior. We also provide a computationally efficient scalar filter for the no change…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-27 Jason J. Ford , Justin M. Kennedy , Caitlin Tompkins , Jasmin James , Aaron McFadyen

We work under the A\"{\i}d\'{e}kon-Chen conditions which ensure that the derivative martingale in a supercritical branching random walk on the line converges almost surely to a nondegenerate nonnegative random variable that we denote by…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-14 Dariusz Buraczewski , Alexander Iksanov , Bastien Mallein

Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which automatically tune their parameters based on past samples, have proved extremely useful in practice. The self-tuning mechanism makes them `non-Markovian', which means that their…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-28 Pietari Laitinen , Matti Vihola

We consider continuous-space, discrete-time Markov chains on $\mathbb{R}^d$, that admit a finite number $N$ of metastable states. Our main motivation for investigating these processes is to analyse random Poincar\'e maps, which describe…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Nils Berglund

Adaptive Markov chains are an important class of Monte Carlo methods for sampling from probability distributions. The time evolution of adaptive algorithms depends on past samples, and thus these algorithms are non-Markovian. Although there…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-02 Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

We consider an ordinary differential equation with a unique hyperbolic attractor at the origin, to which we add a small random perturbation. It is known that under general conditions, the solution of this stochastic differential equation…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-05 Gerardo Barrera , Milton Jara

In this paper, we study (1,2) and (2,1) random walks in varying environments on the lattice of positive half line. We assume that the transition probabilities at site $n$ are asymptotically constants as $n\rightarrow\infty.$ For (1,2)…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-22 Hua-Ming Wang , Lanlan Tang
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