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A method for counterfactual explanation of machine learning survival models is proposed. One of the difficulties of solving the counterfactual explanation problem is that the classes of examples are implicitly defined through outcomes of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-01 Maxim S. Kovalev , Lev V. Utkin

Machine learning models that operate on graph-structured data, such as molecular graphs or social networks, often make accurate predictions but offer little insight into why certain predictions are made. Counterfactual explanations address…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 David Bechtoldt , Sidney Bender

Inverse optimal control, also known as inverse reinforcement learning, is the problem of recovering an unknown reward function in a Markov decision process from expert demonstrations of the optimal policy. We introduce a probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-22 Sergey Levine , Vladlen Koltun

Counterfactual explanations describe how to modify a feature vector in order to flip the outcome of a trained classifier. Obtaining robust counterfactual explanations is essential to provide valid algorithmic recourse and meaningful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-22 Alexandre Forel , Axel Parmentier , Thibaut Vidal

Counterfactuals have been recognized as an effective approach to explain classifier decisions. Nevertheless, they have not yet been considered in the context of clustering. In this work, we propose the use of counterfactuals to explain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-20 Georgios Vardakas , Antonia Karra , Evaggelia Pitoura , Aristidis Likas

Counterfactual explanations represent the minimal change to a data sample that alters its predicted classification, typically from an unfavorable initial class to a desired target class. Counterfactuals help answer questions such as "what…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Brian Barr , Matthew R. Harrington , Samuel Sharpe , C. Bayan Bruss

Model interpretability has become an important problem in machine learning (ML) due to the increased effect that algorithmic decisions have on humans. Counterfactual explanations can help users understand not only why ML models make certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-20 Ana Lucic , Harrie Oosterhuis , Hinda Haned , Maarten de Rijke

Recently, counterfactuals using "if-only" explanations have become very popular in eXplainable AI (XAI), as they describe which changes to feature-inputs of a black-box AI system result in changes to a (usually negative) decision-outcome.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Saugat Aryal , Mark T. Keane

Estimating counterfactual distributions under interventions is central to treatment risk assessment and counterfactual generation tasks. Existing approaches model the counterfactual distribution as a standalone generative target, without…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-11 Hugh Dance , Johnny Xi , Peter Orbanz , Benjamin Bloem-Reddy

Counterfactual explanations are a popular type of explanation for making the outcomes of a decision making system transparent to the user. Counterfactual explanations tell the user what to do in order to change the outcome of the system in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

This article extends the widely-used synthetic controls estimator for evaluating causal effects of policy changes to quantile functions. The proposed method provides a geometrically faithful estimate of the entire counterfactual quantile…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-03 Florian Gunsilius

In this paper, we present a framework for solving continuous optimal control problems when the true system dynamics are approximated through an imperfect model. We derive a control strategy by applying Pontryagin's Minimum Principle to the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-31 Panagiotis Kounatidis , Andreas A. Malikopoulos

We present an historical overview about the connections between the analysis of risk and the control of autonomous systems. We offer two main contributions. Our first contribution is to propose three overlapping paradigms to classify the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-13 Yuheng Wang , Margaret P. Chapman

In real-world machine learning systems, labels are often derived from user behaviors that the system wishes to encourage. Over time, new models must be trained as new training examples and features become available. However, feedback loops…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Victoria Lin , Louis-Philippe Morency , Dimitrios Dimitriadis , Srinagesh Sharma

Foundation models trained on web-scraped datasets propagate societal biases to downstream tasks. While counterfactual generation enables bias analysis, existing methods introduce artifacts by modifying contextual elements like clothing and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-12-13 Kirill Sirotkin , Marcos Escudero-Viñolo , Pablo Carballeira , Mayug Maniparambil , Catarina Barata , Noel E. O'Connor

The use of machine learning systems to support decision making in healthcare raises questions as to what extent these systems may introduce or exacerbate disparities in care for historically underrepresented and mistreated groups, due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Stephen Pfohl , Tony Duan , Daisy Yi Ding , Nigam H. Shah

Counterfactual explanations provide ways of achieving a favorable model outcome with minimum input perturbation. However, counterfactual explanations can also be leveraged to reconstruct the model by strategically training a surrogate model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-13 Pasan Dissanayake , Sanghamitra Dutta

This research is focused on generating achievable counterfactual explanations. Given a negative outcome computed by a machine learning model or a decision system, the novel CoGS approach generates (i) a counterfactual solution that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Sopam Dasgupta

There exists three main areas of study inside of the field of predictive maintenance: anomaly detection, fault diagnosis, and remaining useful life prediction. Notably, anomaly detection alerts the stakeholder that an anomaly is occurring.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-23 Logan Cummins , Alexander Sommers , Sudip Mittal , Shahram Rahimi , Maria Seale , Joseph Jaboure , Thomas Arnold

Most counterfactual inference frameworks traditionally assume acyclic structural causal models (SCMs), i.e. directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, many real-world systems (e.g. biological systems) contain feedback loops or cyclic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Saptarshi Saha , Dhruv Vansraj Rathore , Utpal Garain