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Due to their intuitive appeal, Bayesian methods of modeling and uncertainty quantification have become popular in modern machine and deep learning. When providing a prior distribution over the parameter space, it is straightforward to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Ivan Melev , Goeran Kauermann

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer robust uncertainty quantification in model predictions, but training them presents a significant computational challenge. This is mainly due to the problem of sampling multimodal posterior distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Ratneel Deo , Scott Sisson , Jody M. Webster , Rohitash Chandra

Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Pavel Izmailov , Patrick Nicholson , Sanae Lotfi , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Bayesian neural networks perform variational inference over the weights however calculation of the posterior distribution remains a challenge. Our work builds on variational inference techniques for bayesian neural networks using the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-23 Abhinav Sagar

Robust Bayesian inference is the calculation of posterior probability bounds given perturbations in a probabilistic model. This paper focuses on perturbations that can be expressed locally in Bayesian networks through convex sets of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Fabio Gagliardi Cozman

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have become one of the promising approaches for uncertainty estimation due to the solid theorical foundations. However, the performance of BNNs is affected by the ability of catching uncertainty. Instead of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Shiyu Shen , Bin Pan , Tianyang Shi , Tao Li , Zhenwei Shi

Bayesian clustering methods have the widely touted advantage of providing a probabilistic characterization of uncertainty in clustering through the posterior distribution. An amazing variety of priors and likelihoods have been proposed for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Garritt L. Page , Andrés F. Barrientos , David B. Dahl , David B. Dunson

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-08 Taylor R. Brown

Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process. Mean-variance estimation networks can learn this type of uncertainty but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Jiaxiang Yi , Miguel A. Bessa

Bayesian Networks may be appealing for clinical decision-making due to their inclusion of causal knowledge, but their practical adoption remains limited as a result of their inability to deal with unstructured data. While neural networks do…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-16 Paloma Rabaey , Cedric De Boom , Thomas Demeester

Variational Bayesian posterior inference often requires simplifying approximations such as mean-field parametrisation to ensure tractability. However, prior work has associated the variational mean-field approximation for Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-07 Richard Kurle , Ralf Herbrich , Tim Januschowski , Yuyang Wang , Jan Gasthaus

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer probability distributions for model parameters, enabling uncertainty quantification in predictions. However, they often underperform compared to deterministic neural networks. Utilizing mutual learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-04 Cuong Pham , Cuong C. Nguyen , Trung Le , Dinh Phung , Gustavo Carneiro , Thanh-Toan Do

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) work well on large datasets. But labelled data is hard to collect, and in some applications larger amounts of data are not available. The problem then is how to use CNNs with small data -- as CNNs…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-19 Yarin Gal , Zoubin Ghahramani

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Graph Neural Networks (GNN) provide a powerful framework that elegantly integrates Graph theory with Machine learning for modeling and analysis of networked data. We consider the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in predictions of GNN…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-23 Sai Munikoti , Deepesh Agarwal , Laya Das , Balasubramaniam Natarajan

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

Deep neural networks have outperformed existing machine learning models in various molecular applications. In practical applications, it is still difficult to make confident decisions because of the uncertainty in predictions arisen from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-21 Seongok Ryu , Yongchan Kwon , Woo Youn Kim

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-19 Yaniv Yacoby , Weiwei Pan , Finale Doshi-Velez

We introduce a variational Bayesian neural network where the parameters are governed via a probability distribution on random matrices. Specifically, we employ a matrix variate Gaussian \cite{gupta1999matrix} parameter posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-24 Christos Louizos , Max Welling

Recent advances in reconstruction methods for inverse problems leverage powerful data-driven models, e.g., deep neural networks. These techniques have demonstrated state-of-the-art performances for several imaging tasks, but they often do…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Riccardo Barbano , Chen Zhang , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin
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