Related papers: Changes over time in the 100-year return value of …
Estimating climate effects on future ocean storm severity is plagued by large uncertainties, yet for safe design and operation of offshore structures, best possible estimates of climate effects are required given available data. We explore…
We quantify changes DeltaQ in 100-year return values for regional annual maxima and minima of near-surface atmospheric temperature from output of five CMIP6 models, for five of the Earth's desert regions, over the interval (2025,2125). We…
The CMIP global climate models (GCMs) assess that nearly 100% of global surface warming observed between 1850-1900 and 2011-2020 is attributable to anthropogenic drivers like greenhouse gas emissions. These models also generate future…
Quantitative estimates of the contributions of the anthropogenic forcing, characterized by changes in the radiative forcing of atmospheric greenhouse gases (CO2, in particular), and solar activity variations to the trends of the global…
Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from…
Ensembles of regional-global climate model combinations show substantial spread in projected wind and solar resources. Using 31 RCM-GCM pairs, we quantify the sources of this spread with a spatially and seasonally resolved variance…
We may anticipate that climate change will bring changes to the intensity and variability of near surface winds, either through local effects or by altering the large-scale flow. The impact of climate change on European wind resources has…
Efforts to reduce climate change, but also falling prices and significant technology developments currently drive an increased weather-dependent electricity production from renewable electricity sources. In light of the changing climate, it…
Climate change will impact wind and therefore wind power generation with largely unknown effect and magnitude. Climate models can provide insights and should be used for long-term power planning. In this work we use Gaussian processes to…
We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…
Over recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced dramatic changes due to climate change. Retreating sea ice has opened up large areas of ocean, resulting in an enhanced wave climate. Taking into account the intense seasonality and the…
Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background warming modulation. The latter is related…
Earth's temperature variability can be partitioned into internal and externally-forced components. Yet, underlying mechanisms and their relative contributions remain insufficiently understood, especially on decadal to centennial timescales.…
Reliable wind speed data is crucial for applications such as estimating local (future) wind power. Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provide forecasts over multi-decadal periods. However, their outputs vary…
Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records reveal major periodicities at about 9.1, 10-11, 19-22 and 59-62 years. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), to be used in the IPCC…
Conventional hurricane track generation methods typically depend on biased outputs from Global Climate Models (GCMs), which undermines their accuracy in the context of climate change. We present a novel dynamic bias correction framework…
Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we…
Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide forecasts of future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions models as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions "drivers": population p,…
Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…