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Learning individualized treatment rules (ITRs) is an important topic in precision medicine. Current literature mainly focuses on deriving ITRs from a single source population. We consider the observational data setting when the source…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-04 Rui Chen , Jared D. Huling , Guanhua Chen , Menggang Yu

This chapter covers different approaches to policy evaluation for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on an outcome of interest. As an introduction to causal inference, the discussion starts with the experimental…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-03 Martin Huber

We propose a distributional framework for offline Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) that jointly models uncertainty over reward functions and full distributions of returns. Unlike conventional IRL approaches that recover a deterministic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Feiyang Wu , Ye Zhao , Anqi Wu

The gold standard for causal model evaluation involves comparing model predictions with true effects estimated from randomized controlled trials (RCT). However, RCTs are not always feasible or ethical to perform. In contrast, conditionally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-06 Chao Ma , Cheng Zhang

We consider the problem of offline reinforcement learning with model-based control, whose goal is to learn a dynamics model from the experience replay and obtain a pessimism-oriented agent under the learned model. Current model-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-16 Ruizhen Liu , Dazhi Zhong , Zhicong Chen

We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Jiahao Ai , Zhimei Ren

Reweighting a distribution to minimize a distance to a target distribution is a powerful and flexible strategy for estimating a wide range of causal effects, but can be challenging in practice because optimal weights typically depend on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-16 Oscar Clivio , Avi Feller , Chris Holmes

Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPW) has been well applied in causal inference to estimate population-level estimands from observational studies. For time-to-event outcomes, the failure time distribution can be estimated by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-13 Yuhao Deng , Rui Wang

Randomized clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes have traditionally used the log-rank test followed by the Cox proportional hazards (PH) model to estimate the hazard ratio between the treatment groups. These are valid under the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Jiyu Luo , Ronghui Xu

Meta-reinforcement learning algorithms provide a data-driven way to acquire policies that quickly adapt to many tasks with varying rewards or dynamics functions. However, learned meta-policies are often effective only on the exact task…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Anurag Ajay , Abhishek Gupta , Dibya Ghosh , Sergey Levine , Pulkit Agrawal

We study offline meta-reinforcement learning, a practical reinforcement learning paradigm that learns from offline data to adapt to new tasks. The distribution of offline data is determined jointly by the behavior policy and the task.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Haoqi Yuan , Zongqing Lu

Reinforcement learning (RL) struggles to scale to large, combinatorial action spaces common in many real-world problems. This paper introduces a novel framework for training discrete diffusion models as highly effective policies in these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Haitong Ma , Ofir Nabati , Aviv Rosenberg , Bo Dai , Oran Lang , Craig Boutilier , Na Li , Shie Mannor , Lior Shani , Guy Tenneholtz

When transferring a control policy from simulation to a physical system, the policy needs to be robust to variations in the dynamics to perform well. Commonly, the optimal policy overfits to the approximate model and the corresponding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-27 Michael Lutter , Shie Mannor , Jan Peters , Dieter Fox , Animesh Garg

We propose a new estimator for average causal effects of a binary treatment with panel data in settings with general treatment patterns. Our approach augments the popular two-way-fixed-effects specification with unit-specific weights that…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-06 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido W. Imbens , Lihua Lei , Xiaoman Luo

Proximal causal learning is a promising framework for identifying the causal effect under the existence of unmeasured confounders. Within this framework, the doubly robust (DR) estimator was derived and has shown its effectiveness in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-12 Yong Wu , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Xinwei Sun

Individualized treatment rules aim to identify if, when, which, and to whom treatment should be applied. A globally aging population, rising healthcare costs, and increased access to patient-level data have created an urgent need for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-04 Ying-Qi Zhao , Eric B. Laber , Yang Ning , Sumona Saha , Bruce Sands

The inverse probability weighting (IPW) is broadly utilized to address missing data problems including causal inference but may suffer from large variances and biases due to propensity score model misspecification. To solve these problems,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-05 Hiroto Katsumata

This paper studies the performative policy learning problem, where agents adjust their features in response to a released policy to improve their potential outcomes, inducing an endogenous distribution shift. There has been growing interest…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Qianyi Chen , Ying Chen , Bo Li

Standard supervised learning breaks down under data distribution shift. However, the principle of independent causal mechanisms (ICM, Peters et al. (2017)) can turn this weakness into an opportunity: one can take advantage of distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-09 Jens Müller , Robert Schmier , Lynton Ardizzone , Carsten Rother , Ullrich Köthe

There is growing interest in developing causal inference methods for multi-valued treatments with a focus on pairwise average treatment effects. Here we focus on a clinically important, yet less-studied estimand: causal drug-drug…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-20 Di Shu , Peisong Han , Sean Hennessy , Todd A Miano