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Conformal prediction provides a model-agnostic framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample validity guarantees, making it an attractive tool for constructing reliable prediction sets. However, existing approaches commonly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-30 Eshant English , Christoph Lippert

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Pranav Maneriker , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Many risk-sensitive applications require well-calibrated prediction sets over multiple, potentially correlated target variables, for which the prediction algorithm may report correlated errors. In this work, we aim to construct the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Ji Won Park , Robert Tibshirani , Kyunghyun Cho

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Supervised graph prediction addresses regression problems where the outputs are structured graphs. Although several approaches exist for graph-valued prediction, principled uncertainty quantification remains limited. We propose a conformal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-30 Gabriel Melo , Thibaut de Saivre , Anna Calissano , Florence d'Alché-Buc

Accurate prediction with multimodal data-encompassing tabular, textual, and visual inputs or outputs-is fundamental to advancing analytics in diverse application domains. Traditional approaches often struggle to integrate heterogeneous data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-11 Xinyu Tian , Xiaotong Shen

We extend the method of conformal prediction beyond the case relying on labeled calibration data. Replacing the calibration scores by suitable estimates, we identify conformity sets $C$ for classification and regression models that rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Jonas Flechsig , Maximilian Pilz

Conformal predictors provide set or functional predictions that are valid under the assumption of randomness, i.e., under the assumption of independent and identically distributed data. The question asked in this paper is whether there are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Vladimir Vovk

Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal prediction and scenario optimization constitute two important classes of statistical learning frameworks to certify decisions made using data. They have found numerous applications in control theory, machine learning and robotics.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Niall O'Sullivan , Licio Romao , Kostas Margellos

We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to provide exact conditional coverage universally in finite samples. Thus, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-18 Isaac Gibbs , John J. Cherian , Emmanuel J. Candès

We propose two new conformity scores for conformal prediction, in a general multivariate regression framework. The underlying score functions are based on a covariance analysis of the residuals and the input points. We give theoretical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-30 Iain Henderson , Adrien Mazoyer , Fabrice Gamboa

Automatic anatomical landmark localization in medical imaging requires not just accurate predictions but reliable uncertainty quantification for effective clinical decision support. Current uncertainty quantification approaches often fall…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jef Jonkers , Frank Coopman , Luc Duchateau , Glenn Van Wallendael , Sofie Van Hoecke

This paper presents a new conformal method for generating simultaneous forecasting bands guaranteed to cover the entire path of a new random trajectory with sufficiently high probability. Prompted by the need for dependable uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-16 Yanfei Zhou , Lars Lindemann , Matteo Sesia

The generation of high-quality synthetic data presents significant challenges in machine learning research, particularly regarding statistical fidelity and uncertainty quantification. Existing generative models produce compelling synthetic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Rahul Vishwakarma , Shrey Dharmendra Modi , Vishwanath Seshagiri

Forecasting with longitudinal data has been rarely studied. Most of the available studies are for continuous response and all of them are for univariate response. In this study, we consider forecasting multivariate longitudinal binary data.…

Applications · Statistics 2014-03-13 Ozgur Asar , Ozlem Ilk

Conformal Prediction (CP) has recently received a tremendous amount of interest, leading to a wide range of new theoretical and methodological results for predictive inference with formal theoretical guarantees. However, the vast majority…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-22 Manit Paul , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Before deploying outputs from foundation models in high-stakes tasks, it is imperative to ensure that they align with human values. For instance, in radiology report generation, reports generated by a vision-language model must align with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-06 Yu Gui , Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. A candidate output is included in the prediction set if its non-conformity score is not considered extreme relative to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-20 Eugene Ndiaye