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Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-29 Meelis Kull , Miquel Perello-Nieto , Markus Kängsepp , Telmo Silva Filho , Hao Song , Peter Flach

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have made a revolution in numerous fields during the last decade. However, in tasks with high safety requirements, such as medical or autonomous driving applications, providing an assessment of the models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-20 Omer Achrack , Raizy Kellerman , Ouriel Barzilay

The combination of multiple classifiers using ensemble methods is increasingly important for making progress in a variety of difficult prediction problems. We present a comparative analysis of several ensemble methods through two case…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-09-20 Sean Whalen , Gaurav Pandey

Reliable uncertainty calibration is essential for safely deploying deep neural networks in high-stakes applications. Deep neural networks are known to exhibit systematic overconfidence, especially under distribution shifts. Although…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Achim Hekler , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Reliable probabilities are critical in high-risk applications, yet common calibration criteria (confidence, class-wise) are only necessary for full distributional calibration, and post-hoc methods often lack distribution-free guarantees. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-17 Daniil Kazantsev , Mohsen Guizani , Eric Moulines , Maxim Panov , Nikita Kotelevskii

Multi-class ensemble classification remains a popular focus of investigation within the research community. The popularization of cloud services has sped up their adoption due to the ease of deploying large-scale machine-learning models. It…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Fernando Arévalo , Tahasanul Ibrahim , Christian Alison M. Piolo , Andreas Schwung

Due to the unprecedented success of deep learning, it has become an integral component in several multimedia computing applications in todays world. Unfortunately, deep learning systems are not perfect and can fail, sometimes abruptly,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Varun Totakura , Shayok Chakraborty

We present a method to improve the calibration of deep ensembles in the small training data regime in the presence of unlabeled data. Our approach is extremely simple to implement: given an unlabeled set, for each unlabeled data point, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Konstantinos Pitas , Julyan Arbel

Proper confidence calibration of deep neural networks is essential for reliable predictions in safety-critical tasks. Miscalibration can lead to model over-confidence and/or under-confidence; i.e., the model's confidence in its prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Shuang Ao , Stefan Rueger , Advaith Siddharthan

Ensemble Learning methods combine multiple algorithms performing the same task to build a group with superior quality. These systems are well adapted to the distributed setup, where each peer or machine of the network hosts one algorithm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Gaëlle Candel , David Naccache

Deep neural networks have shown exceptional performance in various tasks, but their lack of robustness, reliability, and tendency to be overconfident pose challenges for their deployment in safety-critical applications like autonomous…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-07-20 Steven Landgraf , Markus Hillemann , Kira Wursthorn , Markus Ulrich

This paper introduces Fast Calibrated Explanations, a method designed for generating rapid, uncertainty-aware explanations for machine learning models. By incorporating perturbation techniques from ConformaSight - a global explanation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Tuwe Löfström , Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu , Alessandra Stramiglio , Helena Löfström , Fabio Vitali

Uncertainty quantification is one of the most crucial tasks to obtain trustworthy and reliable machine learning models for decision making. However, most research in this domain has only focused on problems with small label spaces and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-20 Jyun-Yu Jiang , Wei-Cheng Chang , Jiong Zhong , Cho-Jui Hsieh , Hsiang-Fu Yu

Every uncalibrated classifier has a corresponding true calibration map that calibrates its confidence. Deviations of this idealistic map from the identity map reveal miscalibration. Such calibration errors can be reduced with many post-hoc…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-27 Markus Kängsepp , Kaspar Valk , Meelis Kull

Deep-learning-based data-driven forecasting methods have produced impressive results for traffic forecasting. A major limitation of these methods, however, is that they provide forecasts without estimates of uncertainty, which are critical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-07 Tanwi Mallick , Prasanna Balaprakash , Jane Macfarlane

The confidence calibration of deep learning-based perception models plays a crucial role in their reliability. Especially in the context of autonomous driving, downstream tasks like prediction and planning depend on accurate confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-07 Mariella Dreissig , Florian Piewak , Joschka Boedecker

While recent computer vision algorithms achieve impressive performance on many benchmarks, they lack robustness - presented with an image from a different distribution, (e.g. weather or lighting conditions not considered during training),…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Sebastian Cygert , Bartłomiej Wróblewski , Karol Woźniak , Radosław Słowiński , Andrzej Czyżewski

Deep learning based approaches have achieved significant progresses in different tasks like classification, detection, segmentation, and so on. Ensemble learning is widely known to further improve performance by combining multiple…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-05-17 Danlu Chen , Xu-Yao Zhang , Wei Zhang , Yao Lu , Xiuli Li , Tao Mei

Calibrating deep learning models to yield uncertainty-aware predictions is crucial as deep neural networks get increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications. While existing post-hoc calibration methods achieve impressive results on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Christian Tomani , Futa Waseda , Yuesong Shen , Daniel Cremers

An ensemble consists of a set of individually trained classifiers (such as neural networks or decision trees) whose predictions are combined when classifying novel instances. Previous research has shown that an ensemble is often more…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-06-02 R. Maclin , D. Opitz