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Quantum theory is in principle compatible with scenarios where physical processes occur in an indefinite order, potentially yielding advantages in a broad range of information processing tasks. However, advantages in communication, the most…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-26 Xuanqiang Zhao , Benchi Zhao , Cyril Branciard , Giulio Chiribella

Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper bounds; however, unless the covariates…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-19 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Asher Spector

In this paper, we consider the composite optimization problem, where the objective function integrates a continuously differentiable loss function with a nonsmooth regularization term. Moreover, only the function values for the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-09 Shanglin Liu , Lei Wang , Nachuan Xiao , Xin Liu

Triple difference-in-differences designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in empirical work. Surveying the literature, we find that most applications include controls. We show that this standard practice is generally biased for…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-13 Dor Leventer

In this paper, we discuss causal inference on the efficacy of a treatment or medication on a time-to-event outcome with competing risks. Although the treatment group can be randomized, there can be confoundings between the compliance and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-06 Cheng Zheng , Ran Dai , Parameswaran Hari , Mei-Jie Zhang

In this work, we give rigorous operational meaning to superposition of causal orders. This fits within a recent effort to understand how the standard operational perspective on quantum theory could be extended to include indefinite…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-09-07 Nicola Pinzani , Stefano Gogioso

Taking a rigorous formal approach, we consider sequential decision problems involving observable variables, unobservable variables, and action variables. We can typically assume the property of extended stability, which allows…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 A. Philip Dawid , Panayiota Constantinou

Faced with data-driven policies, individuals will manipulate their features to obtain favorable decisions. While earlier works cast these manipulations as undesirable gaming, recent works have adopted a more nuanced causal framing in which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Tom Yan , Shantanu Gupta , Zachary Lipton

We consider off-policy evaluation and optimization with continuous action spaces. We focus on observational data where the data collection policy is unknown and needs to be estimated. We take a semi-parametric approach where the value…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-07-23 Mert Demirer , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Greg Lewis , Victor Chernozhukov

The era of big data has witnessed an increasing availability of observational data from mobile and social networking, online advertising, web mining, healthcare, education, public policy, marketing campaigns, and so on, which facilitates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-06 Zhixuan Chu , Ruopeng Li , Stephen Rathbun , Sheng Li

We study the offline contextual bandit problem, where we aim to acquire an optimal policy using observational data. However, this data usually contains two deficiencies: (i) some variables that confound actions are not observed, and (ii)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Siyu Chen , Yitan Wang , Zhaoran Wang , Zhuoran Yang

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for…

We provide a novel characterization of semiparametric efficiency in a generic supervised learning setting where the outcome mean function -- defined as the conditional expectation of the outcome of interest given the other observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-22 Harrison H. Li

We consider a cooperative learning scenario where a collection of networked agents with individually owned classifiers dynamically update their predictions, for the same classification task, through communication or observations of each…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Shahrzad Haddadan , Cheng Xin , Jie Gao

In aggregated variables the impact of interventions is typically ill-defined because different micro-realizations of the same macro-intervention can result in different changes of downstream macro-variables. We show that this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-23 Yuchen Zhu , Kailash Budhathoki , Jonas Kuebler , Dominik Janzing

Classification is a well-studied machine learning task which concerns the assignment of instances to a set of outcomes. Classification models support the optimization of managerial decision-making across a variety of operational business…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Wouter Verbeke , Diego Olaya , Jeroen Berrevoets , Sam Verboven , Sebastián Maldonado

As a pivotal component to attaining generalizable solutions in human intelligence, reasoning provides great potential for reinforcement learning (RL) agents' generalization towards varied goals by summarizing part-to-whole arguments and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-18 Wenhao Ding , Haohong Lin , Bo Li , Ding Zhao

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

We study the problem of policy evaluation and learning from batched contextual bandit data when treatments are continuous, going beyond previous work on discrete treatments. Previous work for discrete treatment/action spaces focuses on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-19 Nathan Kallus , Angela Zhou

An indefinite causal order, where the causes of events are not necessarily in past events, is predicted by the process matrix framework. A fundamental question is how these non-separable causal structures can be related to the thermodynamic…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-10-20 Gianluca Francica