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Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are a powerful tool for sampling equilibrium configurations in complex systems. One problem these methods often face is slow convergence over large energy barriers. In this work, we propose a novel method…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-05-29 Luigi Sbailò , Manuel Dibak , Frank Noé

We present a general framework for applying learning algorithms and heuristical guidance to the verification of Markov decision processes (MDPs). The primary goal of our techniques is to improve performance by avoiding an exhaustive…

We consider the problem of controlling a Markov decision process (MDP) with a large state space, so as to minimize average cost. Since it is intractable to compete with the optimal policy for large scale problems, we pursue the more modest…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-02-28 Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Peter L. Bartlett , Alan Malek

The problem of optimally scaling the proposal distribution in a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is critical to the quality of the generated samples. Much work has gone into obtaining such results for various Metropolis-Hastings (MH)…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-07 Sanket Agrawal , Dootika Vats , Krzysztof Łatuszyński , Gareth O. Roberts

Robust Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a powerful framework for modeling sequential decision-making problems with model uncertainty. This paper proposes the first first-order framework for solving robust MDPs. Our algorithm interleaves…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-18 Julien Grand-Clément , Christian Kroer

We consider conditional tests for non-negative discrete exponential families. We develop two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which allow us to sample from the conditional space and to perform approximated tests. The first…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-27 Roberto Fontana , Francesca Romana Crucinio

A popular perspective in Reinforcement learning (RL) casts the problem as probabilistic inference on a graphical model of the Markov decision process (MDP). The core object of study is the probability of each state-action pair being visited…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Jean Tarbouriech , Tor Lattimore , Brendan O'Donoghue

We study the problem of learning Markov decision processes with finite state and action spaces when the transition probability distributions and loss functions are chosen adversarially and are allowed to change with time. We introduce an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-03-14 Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Peter L. Bartlett , Csaba Szepesvari

In a previous paper by the second author,two Markov chain Monte Carlo perfect sampling algorithms -- one called coupling from the past (CFTP) and the other (FMMR) based on rejection sampling -- are compared using as a case study the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Robert P. Dobrow , James Allen Fill

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are often used in clustering since they guarantee asymptotically exact expectations in the infinite-time limit. In finite time, though, slow mixing often leads to poor performance. Modern computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-24 Tin D. Nguyen , Brian L. Trippe , Tamara Broderick

Single-site Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a variant of MCMC in which a single coordinate in the state space is modified in each step. Structured relational models are a good candidate for this style of inference. In the single-site…

Stochastic optimization in learning and inference often relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate gradients when exact computation is intractable. However, finite-time MCMC estimators are biased, and reducing this bias…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Antoine Godichon-Baggioni , Gabriel Lang , Sylvain Le Corff , Julien Stoehr , Sobihan Surendran

We show that for several variations of partially observable Markov decision processes, polynomial-time algorithms for finding control policies are unlikely to or simply don't have guarantees of finding policies within a constant factor or a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-06-02 J. Goldsmith , C. Lusena , M. Mundhenk

We consider a hidden Markov model with multiple observation processes, one of which is chosen at each point in time by a policy---a deterministic function of the information state---and attempt to determine which policy minimises the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-17 James Y. Zhao

Large-scale Markov decision processes (MDPs) require planning algorithms with runtime independent of the number of states of the MDP. We consider the planning problem in MDPs using linear value function approximation with only weak…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Roshan Shariff , Csaba Szepesvári

Euclidean Markov decision processes are a powerful tool for modeling control problems under uncertainty over continuous domains. Finite state imprecise, Markov decision processes can be used to approximate the behavior of these infinite…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-06-29 Manfred Jaeger , Giorgio Bacci , Giovanni Bacci , Kim Guldstrand Larsen , Peter Gjøl Jensen

We consider a discrete-time Markov decision process with Borel state and action spaces. The performance criterion is to maximize a total expected {utility determined by unbounded return function. It is shown the existence of optimal…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-08 François Dufour , Alexandre Genadot

Couplings play a central role in contemporary Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and in the analysis of their convergence to stationarity. In most cases, a coupling must induce relatively fast meeting between chains to ensure good…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-04 John O'Leary

In simulation-based inferences for partially observed Markov process models (POMP), the by-product of the Monte Carlo filtering is an approximation of the log likelihood function. Recently, iterated filtering [14, 13] has originally been…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-26 Dao Nguyen

Bayesian optimization methods allocate limited sampling budgets to maximize expensive-to-evaluate functions. One-step-lookahead policies are often used, but computing optimal multi-step-lookahead policies remains a challenge. We consider a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-07-13 J. Massey Cashore , Lemuel Kumarga , Peter I. Frazier