Related papers: Formulation a new SIR model with non-local mobilit…
OBJECTIVES: to describe the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on undetected cases and to evaluate different post-lockdown scenarios. DESIGN: the study introduces a SEIR compartmental model, taking into account the…
In this paper, we study the trajectory of a classic SIR epidemic on a family of dynamic random graphs of fixed size, whose set of edges continuously evolves over time. We set general infection and recovery times, and start the epidemic from…
We discuss the criticality in the stochastic SIR model for infectious diseases. We adopt the path-integral formalism for the propagation of infections among susceptible, infectious, and removed individuals, and perform the perturbative and…
Although modeling studies are focused on the control of SIR-based systems describing epidemic data sets (particularly the COVID-19), few of them present a formal dynamic characterization in terms of equilibrium sets and stability. Such…
The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…
The SARS-CoV-2 infectious outbreak has rapidly spread across the globe and precipitated varying policies to effectuate physical distancing to ameliorate its impact. In this study, we propose a new hybrid machine learning model, SIRNet, for…
Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…
This paper is an exploratory study of two epidemiological questions on a worldwide basis. How fast is the disease spreading? Are the restrictions (especially mobility restrictions) for people bring the expected effect? To answer the first…
We consider a spatial SIR epidemic model where the infectivity of infected individuals depends upon their age of infection, and infections are non local. The domain is an unbounded subset of $\R^d$,and the individuals do not move. We extend…
The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…
This is work in progress. We make it accessible hoping that people might find the idea useful. We propose a discrete, recursive 5-compartment model for the spread of epidemics, which we call {\em SEPIR-model}. Under mild assumptions which…
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…
The SIR model with spatially inhomogeneous infection rate is studied with numerical simulations in one, two, and three dimensions, considering the case that the infection spreads inhomogeneously in densely populated regions or hot spots. We…
Contact patterns in populations fundamentally influence the spread of infectious diseases. Current mathematical methods for epidemiological forecasting on networks largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed, at least for the…
In order to explore the impact of periodically evolving domain on the transmission of disease, we study a SIS reaction-diffusion model with logistic term on a periodically evolving domain. The basic reproduction number ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ is…
We consider a two-patches SIR model where communication occurs thru commuters, distinguishing explicitly permanently resident populations from commuters populations. We give an explicit formula of the reproduction number, and show how the…
We are interested in a variation of the SIR (Susceptible/Infected/Recovered) dynamics on the complete graph, in which infected individuals may only spread to neighboring susceptible individuals at fixed rate $\lambda>0$ while recovered…
Individual contributions to the spread of an epidemic vary widely due to an individual's location in a social network and their intrinsic ability to spread or contract diseases. While the effect of heterogeneous population structure and…
Transportation networks play a critical part in the spread of infectious diseases between populations. In this work, we define a networked susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemic process with loss of immunity over time (SEIRS) that…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…