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Existing methods for estimating uncertainty in deep learning tend to require multiple forward passes, making them unsuitable for applications where computational resources are limited. To solve this, we perform probabilistic reasoning over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-08 Javier Antorán , James Urquhart Allingham , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Datasets in engineering applications are often limited and contaminated, mainly due to unavoidable measurement noise and signal distortion. Thus, using conventional data-driven approaches to build a reliable discriminative model, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-14 Xihaier Luo , Ahsan Kareem

Deep neural networks tend to underestimate uncertainty and produce overly confident predictions. Recently proposed solutions, such as MC Dropout and SDENet, require complex training and/or auxiliary out-of-distribution data. We propose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-14 Akib Mashrur , Wei Luo , Nayyar A. Zaidi , Antonio Robles-Kelly

Modern deep learning methods constitute incredibly powerful tools to tackle a myriad of challenging problems. However, since deep learning methods operate as black boxes, the uncertainty associated with their predictions is often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Laurent Valentin Jospin , Wray Buntine , Farid Boussaid , Hamid Laga , Mohammed Bennamoun

In chemistry, deep neural network models have been increasingly utilized in a variety of applications such as molecular property predictions, novel molecule designs, and planning chemical reactions. Despite the rapid increase in the use of…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2019-05-17 Seongok Ryu , Yongchan Kwon , Woo Youn Kim

Two main obstacles preventing the widespread adoption of variational Bayesian neural networks are the high parameter overhead that makes them infeasible on large networks, and the difficulty of implementation, which can be thought of as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-24 Oscar Chang , Yuling Yao , David Williams-King , Hod Lipson

When incorporating deep neural networks into robotic systems, a major challenge is the lack of uncertainty measures associated with their output predictions. Methods for uncertainty estimation in the output of deep object detectors (DNNs)…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Ali Harakeh , Michael Smart , Steven L. Waslander

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-16 Ali Siahkoohi , Gabrio Rizzuti , Felix J. Herrmann

Deep neural networks have seen enormous success in various real-world applications. Beyond their predictions as point estimates, increasing attention has been focused on quantifying the uncertainty of their predictions. In this review, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-06 Chengyu Dong

Deep neural networks have outperformed existing machine learning models in various molecular applications. In practical applications, it is still difficult to make confident decisions because of the uncertainty in predictions arisen from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-21 Seongok Ryu , Yongchan Kwon , Woo Youn Kim

Reliable uncertainty quantification on RUL prediction is crucial for informative decision-making in predictive maintenance. In this context, we assess some of the latest developments in the field of uncertainty quantification for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-10 Luis Basora , Arthur Viens , Manuel Arias Chao , Xavier Olive

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-22 Marvin Schmitt , Stefan T. Radev , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Traditional deep neural nets (NNs) have shown the state-of-the-art performance in the task of classification in various applications. However, NNs have not considered any types of uncertainty associated with the class probabilities to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-16 Xujiang Zhao , Yuzhe Ou , Lance Kaplan , Feng Chen , Jin-Hee Cho

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) can estimate the uncertainty in predictions, as opposed to non-Bayesian neural networks (NNs). However, BNNs have been far less widely used than non-Bayesian NNs in practice since they need iterative NN…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-15 Namuk Park , Taekyu Lee , Songkuk Kim

Probabilistic models often use neural networks to control their predictive uncertainty. However, when making out-of-distribution (OOD)} predictions, the often-uncontrollable extrapolation properties of neural networks yield poor uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Pierre Segonne , Yevgen Zainchkovskyy , Søren Hauberg

Stress and material deformation field predictions are among the most important tasks in computational mechanics. These predictions are typically made by solving the governing equations of continuum mechanics using finite element analysis,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-24 George D. Pasparakis , Lori Graham-Brady , Michael D. Shields

Deep neural network (DNN) models have achieved state-of-the-art predictive accuracy in a wide range of supervised learning applications. However, accurately quantifying the uncertainty in DNN predictions remains a challenging task. For…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Daiwei Zhang , Tianci Liu , Jian Kang

Errors in measurements are key to weighting the value of data, but are often neglected in Machine Learning (ML). We show how Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are able to learn about the context and patterns of signal and noise, leading…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-11 Natália V. N. Rodrigues , L. Raul Abramo , Nina S. Hirata

We investigate the use of neural networks (NNs) for the estimation of hidden model parameters and uncertainty quantification from noisy observational data for inverse parameter estimation problems. We formulate the parameter estimation as a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-17 German Villalobos , Johann Rudi , Andreas Mang

We investigate the problem of weight uncertainty originally proposed by [Blundell et al. (2015). Weight uncertainty in neural networks. In International conference on machine learning, 1613-1622, PMLR.] in the context of neural networks…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Moein Monemi , Morteza Amini , S. Mahmoud Taheri , Mohammad Arashi