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Graph contrastive learning has shown great promise when labeled data is scarce, but large unlabeled datasets are available. However, it often does not take uncertainty estimation into account. We show that a variational Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-04 Alexander Möllers , Alexander Immer , Elvin Isufi , Vincent Fortuin

In this paper we present an algorithm for rapid Bayesian analysis that combines the benefits of nested sampling and artificial neural networks. The blind accelerated multimodal Bayesian inference (BAMBI) algorithm implements the MultiNest…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2012-03-12 Philip Graff , Farhan Feroz , Michael P. Hobson , Anthony Lasenby

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with latent variables are probabilistic models which can automatically identify complex stochastic patterns in the data. We describe and study in these models a decomposition of predictive uncertainty into…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-15 Stefan Depeweg , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Finale Doshi-Velez , Steffen Udluft

Bayesian neural networks with latent variables are scalable and flexible probabilistic models: They account for uncertainty in the estimation of the network weights and, by making use of latent variables, can capture complex noise patterns…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-19 Stefan Depeweg , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Finale Doshi-Velez , Steffen Udluft

The pursuit of long-term autonomy mandates that machine learning models must continuously adapt to their changing environments and learn to solve new tasks. Continual learning seeks to overcome the challenge of catastrophic forgetting,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Jack Foster , Alexandra Brintrup

Active Feature Acquisition is an instance-wise, sequential decision making problem. The aim is to dynamically select which feature to measure based on current observations, independently for each test instance. Common approaches either use…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-07 Alexander Norcliffe , Changhee Lee , Fergus Imrie , Mihaela van der Schaar , Pietro Lio

With the rise of different language model architecture, fine-tuning is becoming even more important for down stream tasks Model gets messy, finding proper hyperparameters for fine-tuning. Although BO has been tried for hyperparameter…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Zishuo Bao , Yibo Liu , Changyutao Qiu

In this paper, we consider active information acquisition when the prediction model is meant to be applied on a targeted subset of the population. The goal is to label a pre-specified fraction of customers in the target or test set by…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-03-17 Sneha Chaudhari , Pankaj Dayama , Vinayaka Pandit , Indrajit Bhattacharya

Ensemble learning is a mainstay in modern data science practice. Conventional ensemble algorithms assign to base models a set of deterministic, constant model weights that (1) do not fully account for individual models' varying accuracy…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-02 Jeremiah Zhe Liu , John Paisley , Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou , Brent A. Coull

The central goal of active learning is to gather data that maximises downstream predictive performance, but popular approaches have limited flexibility in customising this data acquisition to different downstream problems and losses. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Zhuoyue Huang , Freddie Bickford Smith , Tom Rainforth

We present a set of high-probability inequalities that control the concentration of weighted averages of multiple (possibly uncountably many) simultaneously evolving and interdependent martingales. Our results extend the PAC-Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-31 Yevgeny Seldin , François Laviolette , Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi , John Shawe-Taylor , Peter Auer

BatchNorm is a critical building block in modern convolutional neural networks. Its unique property of operating on "batches" instead of individual samples introduces significantly different behaviors from most other operations in deep…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-18 Yuxin Wu , Justin Johnson

We tackle the fundamental problem of Bayesian active learning with noise, where we need to adaptively select from a number of expensive tests in order to identify an unknown hypothesis sampled from a known prior distribution. In the case of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-12-17 Daniel Golovin , Andreas Krause , Debajyoti Ray

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is unavailable but simulating from the model is possible. However, many ABC algorithms require a large number of simulations, which can be costly.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-15 Marko Järvenpää , Michael U. Gutmann , Arijus Pleska , Aki Vehtari , Pekka Marttinen

Sequential experimental design to discover interventions that achieve a desired outcome is a key problem in various domains including science, engineering and public policy. When the space of possible interventions is large, making an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-17 Jiaqi Zhang , Louis Cammarata , Chandler Squires , Themistoklis P. Sapsis , Caroline Uhler

While uncertainty estimation is a well-studied topic in deep learning, most such work focuses on marginal uncertainty estimates, i.e. the predictive mean and variance at individual input locations. But it is often more useful to estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Chaoqi Wang , Shengyang Sun , Roger Grosse

We introduce a novel framework for the estimation of the posterior distribution over the weights of a neural network, based on a new probabilistic interpretation of adaptive optimisation algorithms such as AdaGrad and Adam. We demonstrate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-21 Samuel Kessler , Arnold Salas , Vincent W. C. Tan , Stefan Zohren , Stephen Roberts

Typical models of learning assume incremental estimation of continuously-varying decision variables like expected rewards. However, this class of models fails to capture more idiosyncratic, discrete heuristics and strategies that people and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Carlos G. Correa , Thomas L. Griffiths , Nathaniel D. Daw

Neural networks utilize the softmax as a building block in classification tasks, which contains an overconfidence problem and lacks an uncertainty representation ability. As a Bayesian alternative to the softmax, we consider a random…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Taejong Joo , Uijung Chung , Min-Gwan Seo

This work introduces an efficient novel approach for epistemic uncertainty estimation for ensemble models for regression tasks using pairwise-distance estimators (PaiDEs). Utilizing the pairwise-distance between model components, these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Lucas Berry , David Meger