Related papers: Technological Innovation and Bursting Bubbles
This study presents a three-step machine learning framework to predict bubbles in the S&P 500 stock market by combining financial news sentiment with macroeconomic indicators. Building on traditional econometric approaches, the proposed…
Innovation records often exhibit "hockey-stick" patterns of abrupt, near-singular growth at the collective level. However, this macroscopic explosiveness stands in stark contrast to individual discovery, which remains bounded by cognitive…
I develop a dynamic model of how internal capital markets in conglomerates respond to liquidity shocks when affiliated firms vary in innovation potential. A two-stage framework defines cutoff rules for when the conglomerate should liquidate…
Cryptocurrencies and blockchain networks have attracted tremendous attention from their volatile price movements and the promise of decentralization. However, most projects run on business narratives with no way to test and verify their…
Innovation is to organizations what evolution is to organisms: it is how organisations adapt to changes in the environment and improve. Governments, institutions and firms that innovate are more likely to prosper and stand the test of time;…
Modern economies evolved from simpler human exchanges into very convoluted systems. Today, a multitude of aspects can be regulated, tampered with, or left to chance; these are economic {\em degrees of freedom} which together shape the flow…
Accuracy of economic theories and efficiency of economic policy strictly depend on the choice of the economic variables and processes mostly liable for description of economic reality. That states the general problem of assessment of any…
The aim of this paper is to propose a heterogeneous agent model of stock markets that develop complicated endogenous price fluctuations. We find occurrences of non-stationary chaos, or speculative bubble, are caused by the heterogeneity of…
We study a dynamical model of interconnected firms which allows for certain market imperfections and frictions, restricted here to be myopic price forecasts and slow adjustment of production. Whereas the standard rational equilibrium is…
A taxonomy of large financial crashes proposed in the literature locates the burst of speculative bubbles due to endogenous causes in the framework of extreme stock market crashes, defined as falls of market prices that are outlier with…
We use a simple combinatorial model of technological change to explain the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution was a sudden large improvement in technology, which resulted in significant increases in human wealth and life…
Phenomena which involves collective choice of many agents who are interacting with each other and choosing one of several alternatives, based on the limited information available to them, frequently show switching between two distinct…
The dynamic network of relationships among corporations underlies cascading economic failures including the current economic crisis, and can be inferred from correlations in market value fluctuations. We analyze the time dependence of the…
This is an exploration of Blockchain technology that is growing in popularity and it seems to be able to disrupt a plethora of industries. A research is being conducted to examine Blockchain potential to be adopted by enterprises from…
In this paper we further extend the optimal bubble riding model proposed by Tangpi and Wang by allowing for price-dependent entry times. Agents are characterized by their individual entry threshold that represents their belief in the…
Understanding the relationship between emerging technology and research and development has long been of interest to companies, policy makers and researchers. In this paper new sources of data and tools are combined with a novel technique…
We propose a stochastic model of evolution of wealth in a society of economic agents. In the model, an agent can be in two states: inactive and active. Transitions between the states occur at random time intervals. In the active state, the…
We consider a network of interacting agents and we model the process of choice on the adoption of a given innovative product by means of statistical-mechanics tools. The modelization allows us to focus on the effects of direct interactions…
Innovation is cumulative and interdependent: successful inventions build on prior knowledge within technological fields and may also affect success across related ones. Yet these dimensions are often studied separately in the innovation…
The integration and innovation of finance and technology have gradually transformed the financial system into a complex one. Analyses of the causesd of abnormal fluctuations in the financial market to extract early warning indicators…