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Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Hamed Karimi , Reza Samavi

In clinical applications, the utility of segmentation models is often based on the accuracy of derived downstream metrics such as organ size, rather than by the pixel-level accuracy of the segmentation masks themselves. Thus, uncertainty…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-03 Matt Y. Cheung , Ashok Veeraraghavan , Guha Balakrishnan

This tutorial focuses on efficient methods to predictive monitoring (PM), the problem of detecting at runtime future violations of a given requirement from the current state of a system. While performing model checking at runtime would…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Francesca Cairoli , Luca Bortolussi , Nicola Paoletti

Uncertainty is critical to reliable decision-making with machine learning. Conformal prediction (CP) handles uncertainty by predicting a set on a test input, hoping the set to cover the true label with at least $(1-\alpha)$ confidence. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Rui Xu , Yue Sun , Chao Chen , Parv Venkitasubramaniam , Sihong Xie

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) offer a versatile framework for constructing predictive distributions, allowing for calibrated inference and informative decision-making. However, their applicability has been limited to scenarios adhering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Jef Jonkers , Glenn Van Wallendael , Luc Duchateau , Sofie Van Hoecke

Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Klaus-Rudolf Kladny , Bernhard Schölkopf , Lisa Koch , Christian F. Baumgartner , Michael Muehlebach

The application of machine learning (ML) techniques in wireless communication domain has seen a tremendous growth over the years especially in the wireless sensing domain. However, the questions surrounding the ML model's inference…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-13 Amit Kachroo , Sai Prashanth Chinnapalli

Uncertainty quantification is essential for scientific analysis, as it allows for the evaluation and interpretation of variability and reliability in complex systems and datasets. In their original form, multivariate statistical regression…

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…

Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP)…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Divake Kumar , Sina Tayebati , Francesco Migliarba , Ranganath Krishnan , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

The quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) regression model is a commonly used technique for predicting biological activities of compounds using their molecular descriptors. Predictions from QSAR models can help, for example,…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2023-04-04 Yuting Xu , Andy Liaw , Robert P. Sheridan , Vladimir Svetnik

We propose a network architecture capable of reliably estimating uncertainty of regression based predictions without sacrificing accuracy. The current state-of-the-art uncertainty algorithms either fall short of achieving prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Kinjal Patel , Steven Waslander

Complex events originate from other primitive events combined according to defined patterns and rules. Instead of using specialists' manual work to compose the model rules, we use machine learning (ML) to self-define these patterns and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Maria J. P. Peixoto , Akramul Azim

Traditional and modern machine learning-based path loss models typically assume a constant prediction variance. We propose a neural network that jointly predicts the mean and link-specific variance by minimizing a Gaussian negative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Jonathan Ethier

Large bandwidth at mm-wave is crucial for 5G and beyond but the high path loss (PL) requires highly accurate PL prediction for network planning and optimization. Statistical models with slope-intercept fit fall short in capturing large…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-06-29 Ankit Gupta , Jinfeng Du , Dmitry Chizhik , Reinaldo A. Valenzuela , Mathini Sellathurai

It is becoming clear that 5G wireless systems will encompass frequencies from around 500 MHz all the way to around 100 GHz. To adequately assess the performance of 5G systems in these different bands, path loss (PL) models will need to be…

Accurate path loss (PL) prediction is crucial for successful network planning, antenna design, and performance optimization in wireless communication systems. Several conventional approaches for PL prediction have been adopted, but they…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-02 Ferdaous Tarhouni , Muneer AlZubi , Mohamed-Slim Alouini

In this paper, we propose conformal inference based approach for statistical verification of CPS models. Cyber-physical systems (CPS) such as autonomous vehicles, avionic systems, and medical devices operate in highly uncertain…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-07-16 Chuchu Fan , Xin Qin , Yuan Xia , Aditya Zutshi , Jyotirmoy Deshmukh

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important to machine learning (ML) force fields to assess the level of confidence during prediction, as ML models are not inherently physical and can therefore yield catastrophically incorrect predictions.…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2022-11-22 Yuge Hu , Joseph Musielewicz , Zachary Ulissi , Andrew J. Medford
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