Related papers: Forecasting Soccer Matches through Distributions
This note proposes a penalty criterion for assessing correct score forecasting in a soccer match. The penalty is based on hierarchical priorities for such a forecast i.e., i) Win, Draw and Loss exact prediction and ii) normalized Euclidian…
Over the last few years, there has been a growing interest in the prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes, with particular emphasis placed on this area by the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In this…
Given a monocular video of a soccer match, this paper presents a computational model to estimate the most feasible pass at any given time. The method leverages offensive player's orientation (plus their location) and opponents' spatial…
We examine two types of binary betting markets, whose primary goal is for profit (such as sports gambling) or to gain information (such as prediction markets). We articulate the interplay between belief and price-setting to analyse both…
In soccer, scoring goals is a fundamental objective which depends on many conditions and constraints. Considering the RoboCup soccer 2D-simulator, this paper presents a data mining-based decision system to identify the best time and…
A popular quantitative approach to evaluating player performance in sports involves comparing an observed outcome to the expected outcome ignoring player involvement, which is estimated using statistical or machine learning methods. In…
The increasing number of spectators and players in e-sports, along with the development of optimized communication solutions and cloud computing technology, has motivated the constant growth of the online game industry. Even though…
Ranking is used in sport leagues to determine a champion and/or to decide on promotion/relegation of teams. Arguably, the best known ranking method relies on scores obtained by cumulating the points associated with the wins and the draws of…
Measuring soccer shooting skill is a challenging analytics problem due to the scarcity and highly contextual nature of scoring events. The introduction of more advanced data surrounding soccer shots has given rise to model-based metrics…
Humans are routinely asked to evaluate the performance of other individuals, separating success from failure and affecting outcomes from science to education and sports. Yet, in many contexts, the metrics driving the human evaluation…
Twitter has been proven to be a notable source for predictive modelling on various domains such as the stock market, the dissemination of diseases or sports outcomes. However, such a study has not been conducted in football (soccer) so far.…
Modelling football outcomes has gained increasing attention, in large part due to the potential for making substantial profits. Despite the strong connection existing between football models and the bookmakers' betting odds, no authors have…
We propose a Statistically Enhanced Learning (aka. SEL) model to predict handball games. Our Machine Learning model augmented with SEL features outperforms state-of-the-art models with an accuracy beyond 80%. In this work, we show how we…
We present an extensive statistical analysis of the results of all sports competitions in five major sports leagues in England and the United States. We characterize the parity among teams by the variance in the winning fraction from…
This paper employs a Skellam process to represent real-time betting odds for English Premier League (EPL) soccer games. Given a matrix of market odds on all possible score outcomes, we estimate the expected scoring rates for each team. The…
Sports betting markets have grown very rapidly recently, with the total European gambling market worth 98.6 billion euro in 2019. Considering a high-resolution (1 Hz) data set provided by a large European bookmaker, we investigate the…
Based on NFL game data we try to predict the outcome of a play in multiple different ways. An application of this is the following: by plugging in various play options one could determine the best play for a given situation in real time.…
A random walk-like model is considered to discuss statistical aspects of tournaments. The model is applied to soccer leagues with emphasis on the scores. This competitive system was computationally simulated and the results are compared…
Performance prediction or forecasting sporting outcomes involves a great deal of insight into the particular area one is dealing with, and a considerable amount of intuition about the factors that bear on such outcomes and performances. The…
We analyse a mathematical model of seeding for sports contests with round-robin qualifying tournaments. The standard seeding system based on coefficients measuring the historical performance of the teams is shown to be unfair as it might…