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We show that for any multiple-try Metropolis algorithm, one can always accept the proposal and evaluate the importance weight that is needed to correct for the bias without extra computational cost. This results in a general, convenient,…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-03 Guanxun Li , Aaron Smith , Quan Zhou

Recent works propose using the discriminator of a GAN to filter out unrealistic samples of the generator. We generalize these ideas by introducing the implicit Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. For any implicit probabilistic model and a target…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-11 Kirill Neklyudov , Evgenii Egorov , Dmitry Vetrov

In this paper we shall consider optimal scaling problems for high-dimensional Metropolis--Hastings algorithms where updates can be chosen to be lower dimensional than the target density itself. We find that the optimal scaling rule for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Peter Neal , Gareth Roberts

When conducting Bayesian inference, delayed acceptance (DA) Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithms and DA pseudo-marginal MH algorithms can be applied when it is computationally expensive to calculate the true posterior or an unbiased estimate…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-02 Chris Sherlock , Andrew Golightly , Daniel A. Henderson

The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is the computational workhorse for Bayesian inverse problems. However, MCMC struggles in high-dimensional parameter spaces, since its iterates must sequentially explore the high-dimensional space.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-09-06 Paul G. Constantine , Carson Kent , Tan Bui-Thanh

This work is driven by the ubiquitous dissent over the abilities and contributions of the Metropolis-Hastings and reversible jump algorithm within the context of trans dimensional sampling. We demystify this topic by taking a deeper look…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-05 Tobias Siems , Lisa Koeppel

In this paper, we present a method for computing the marginal likelihood, also known as the model likelihood or Bayesian evidence, from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), or other sampled posterior distributions. In order to do this, one…

Tasks such as record linkage and multi-target tracking, which involve reconstructing the set of objects that underlie some observed data, are particularly challenging for probabilistic inference. Recent work has achieved efficient and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Brian Milch , Stuart Russell

The challenging problem of conducting fully Bayesian inference for the reaction rate constants governing stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) is considered. Given the challenges underlying this problem, the Markov jump process representation is…

Computation · Statistics 2019-01-10 Andrew Golightly , Emma Bradley , Tom Lowe , Colin S. Gillespie

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are commonly used for their versatility in sampling from complicated probability distributions. However, as the dimension of the distribution gets larger, the computational costs for a satisfactory…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-01 Hector J. Hortua , Riccardo Volpi , Dimitri Marinelli , Luigi Malago

We consider the approximation of expectations with respect to the distribution of a latent Markov process given noisy measurements. This is known as the smoothing problem and is often approached with particle and Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2019-02-06 Lawrence Middleton , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet , Pierre E. Jacob

Hamiltonian dynamics can be used to produce distant proposals for the Metropolis algorithm, thereby avoiding the slow exploration of the state space that results from the diffusive behaviour of simple random-walk proposals. Though…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-30 Radford M. Neal

Our article deals with Bayesian inference for a general state space model with the simulated likelihood computed by the particle filter. We show empirically that the partially or fully adapted particle filters can be much more efficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-06-11 Michael Pitt , Ralph Silva , Paolo Giordani , Robert Kohn

The pseudo-marginal algorithm is a popular variant of the Metropolis--Hastings scheme which allows us to sample asymptotically from a target probability density $\pi$, when we are only able to estimate an unnormalized version of $\pi$…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-20 George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet , Michael K. Pitt

We consider the problem of inference for nonlinear, multivariate diffusion processes, satisfying It\^o stochastic differential equations (SDEs), using data at discrete times that may be incomplete and subject to measurement error. Our…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-27 Andrew Golightly , Chris Sherlock

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods are widely applied in Bayesian inference, system simulation and optimization problems. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a well-known class of MC methods which generate a Markov chain with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Luca Martino , Victor Elvira

This paper introduces a framework for speeding up Bayesian inference conducted in presence of large datasets. We design a Markov chain whose transition kernel uses an (unknown) fraction of (fixed size) of the available data that is randomly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-01 Florian Maire , Nial Friel , Pierre Alquier

MCMC algorithms such as Metropolis-Hastings algorithms are slowed down by the computation of complex target distributions as exemplified by huge datasets. We offer in this paper an approach to reduce the computational costs of such…

Computation · Statistics 2014-06-11 Marco Banterle , Clara Grazian , Christian P. Robert

There is a lack of methodological results to design efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for statistical models with discrete-valued high-dimensional parameters. Motivated by this consideration, we propose a simple framework…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-21 Giacomo Zanella

We present a two-stage Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for sampling probabilistic models, whose log-likelihood is computationally expensive to evaluate, by using a surrogate Gaussian Process (GP) model. The key feature of the approach, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-29 Alessio Benavoli , Jason Wyse , Arthur White