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Fluctuating environments are situations where the spatio-temporal stochasticity plays a significant role in the evolutionary dynamics. The study of the evolution of cooperation in these environments typically assumes a homogeneous, well…
We propose a general model to study the interplay between spatial dispersal and environment spatiotemporal fluctuations in metapopulation dynamics. An ecological landscape of favorable patches is generated like a L\'{e}vy dust, which allows…
This article shows how to specify and construct a discrete, stochastic, continuous-time model specifically for ecological systems. The model is more broad than typical chemical kinetics models in two ways. First, using time-dependent hazard…
Changes in the timescales at which complex systems evolve are essential to predicting critical transitions and catastrophic failures. Disentangling the timescales of the dynamics governing complex systems remains a key challenge. With this…
Evolution occurs in populations of reproducing individuals. The structure of a biological population affects which traits evolve. Understanding evolutionary game dynamics in structured populations is difficult. Precise results have been…
Structure, composition and stability of ecological populations are shaped by the inter- and intra-species interactions within these communities. It remains to be fully understood how the interplay of these interactions with other factors,…
Growing anthropogenic pressures have increased the need for robust predictive models. Meeting this demand requires approaches that can handle bigger data to yield forecasts that capture the variability and underlying uncertainty of…
Compartmentalization of biochemical processes underlies all biological systems, from the organelle to the tissue scale. Theoretical models to study the interplay between noisy reaction dynamics and compartmentalization are sparse, and…
Microbial populations in the natural environment are likely to experience growth conditions very different from those of a typical laboratory xperiment. In particular, removal rates of biomass and substrate are unlikely to be balanced under…
Enhancement of the predictive power and robustness of nonlinear population dynamics models allows ecologists to make more reliable forecasts about species' long term survival. However, the limited availability of detailed ecological data,…
There has been a long-standing and at times fractious debate whether complex and large systems can be stable. In ecology, the so-called `diversity-stability debate' arose because mathematical analyses of ecosystem stability were either…
Societal transformations are necessary to address critical global challenges, such as mitigation of anthropogenic climate change and reaching UN sustainable development goals. Recently, social tipping processes have received increased…
Analysing non-Gaussian spatial-temporal data requires introducing spatial as well as temporal dependence in generalised linear models through the link function of an exponential family distribution. Unlike in Gaussian likelihoods, inference…
We develop a class of exponential-family point processes based on a latent social space to model the coevolution of social structure and behavior over time. Temporal dynamics are modeled as a discrete Markov process specified through…
We introduce a simple dynamical model of two interacting communities whose elements are subject to stochastic discrete-time updates governed by only bilinear interactions. When the intra- and inter-couplings are cooperative, the two…
Every interaction of a living organism with its environment involves the placement of a bet. Armed with partial knowledge about a stochastic world, the organism must decide its next step or near-term strategy, an act that implicitly or…
Symbolic dynamics has proven to be an invaluable tool in analyzing the mechanisms that lead to unpredictability and random behavior in nonlinear dynamical systems. Surprisingly, a discrete partition of continuous state space can produce a…
Frequency-dependent selection reflects the interaction between different species as they battle for limited resources in their environment. In a stochastic evolutionary game the species relative fitnesses guides the evolutionary dynamics…
How diversity is maintained in natural ecosystems is a long-standing question in Theoretical Ecology. By studying a system that combines ecological dynamics, heterogeneous interactions and spatial structure, we uncover a new mechanism for…
We propose a new procedure to monitor and forecast the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems. We describe our procedure by an application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology. The quasi-stable…