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We address the problem of uncertainty quantification and propose measures of total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty based on a known decomposition of (strictly) proper scoring rules, a specific type of loss function, into a divergence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Despite the increasing demand for safer machine learning practices, the use of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods in production remains limited. This limitation is exacerbated by the challenge of validating UQ methods in absence of UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Arthur Pignet , Chiara Regniez , John Klein

In this paper we argue that, to its detriment, transparency research overlooks many foundational concepts of artificial intelligence. As an illustrating example we focus on uncertainty quantification in the context of counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Kacper Sokol , Santo M. A. R. Thies , Eyke Hüllermeier

We evaluate uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for deep learning applied to liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) physics analysis tasks. As deep learning applications enter widespread usage among physics data analysis, neural…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2023-11-02 Dae Heun Koh , Aashwin Mishra , Kazuhiro Terao

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Viktor Bengs , Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

Uncertainty has long been a critical area of study in robotics, particularly when robots are equipped with analytical models. As we move towards the widespread use of deep neural networks in robots, which have demonstrated remarkable…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Ransalu Senanayake

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an essential step in computational model validation because assessment of the model accuracy requires a concrete, quantifiable measure of uncertainty in the model predictions. The concept of UQ in the…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-24 Xu Wu , Ziyu Xie , Farah Alsafadi , Tomasz Kozlowski

The rapid growth and diversity in service offerings and the ensuing complexity of information technology ecosystems present numerous management challenges (both operational and strategic). Instrumentation and measurement technology is, by…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2012-06-26 Moises Goldszmidt

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), or Bayesian calibration, is the process to quantify the uncertainties of random input parameters based on experimental data. The introduction of model discrepancy term is significant because…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-24 Xu Wu , Koroush Shirvan , Tomasz Kozlowski

Despite the popularity of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), the problem of uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CNN has been largely overlooked. Lack of efficient UQ tools severely limits the application of CNN in certain areas, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Hongfei Du , Emre Barut , Fang Jin

The design of next-generation alloys through the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) approach relies on multi-scale computer simulations to provide thermodynamic properties when experiments are difficult to conduct.…

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-08 João Caldeira , Brian Nord

Quantifying and managing uncertainties that occur when data-driven models such as those provided by AI and machine learning methods are applied is crucial. This whitepaper provides a brief motivation and first overview of the state of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-29 Michael Kläs

This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Helena Löfström , Tuwe Löfström , Johan Hallberg Szabadvary

This study investigates uncertainty quantification (UQ) using quantum-classical hybrid machine learning (ML) models for applications in complex and dynamic fields, such as attaining resiliency in supply chain digital twins and financial…

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly prevalent, offering remarkable text generation capabilities. However, a pressing challenge is their tendency to make confidently wrong predictions, highlighting the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Xiang Gao , Jiaxin Zhang , Lalla Mouatadid , Kamalika Das

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes applications, where overconfident predictions can lead to serious consequences. An effective UQ method must balance computational efficiency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Taeseong Yoon , Heeyoung Kim

An artificial intelligence (AI) model can be viewed as a function that maps inputs to outputs in high-dimensional spaces. Once designed and well trained, the AI model is applied for inference. However, even optimized AI models can produce…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Sha Hu

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-14 Abhineet Agarwal , Michael Xiao , Rebecca Barter , Omer Ronen , Boyu Fan , Bin Yu

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for creating trustworthy machine learning models. Recent years have seen a steep rise in UQ methods that can flag suspicious examples, however, it is often unclear what exactly these methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Hao Sun , Boris van Breugel , Jonathan Crabbe , Nabeel Seedat , Mihaela van der Schaar